Mpox (formerly Monkeypox), a viral zoonotic disease, remains a global public health concern because it can spread between animals and humans and among people. While measures like vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and public education are available, combining them strategically and allocating resources during an outbreak can be challenging. Researchers from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia, led by Professor Kasbawati from the Department of Mathematics, have used mathematical modeling to explore how different interventions could work together to limit Mpox transmission. Their work was made available online on March 26, 2026, and was published in Volume 208 of the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals on July 1, 2026.
The researchers developed a mathematical model that captures Mpox transmission dynamics across two interacting populations: humans and rodents. The human population was divided into nine groups representing various stages or conditions of infection, while the rodent population was divided into three groups. The model also included asymptomatic infections in humans and latent infections in rodents to capture additional pathways of transmission.
"For this model, we considered asymptomatic infections in humans and latent infection in rodents, which allowed us to examine transmission pathways that may otherwise be overlooked. While previous modeling studies have often focused on a smaller number of interventions or simplified transmission patterns, this framework was designed to assess the combined effects of multiple measures," explains Prof. Kasbawati.
The researchers simulated different combinations of four interventions: vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and educational campaigns. Vaccination was modeled to reduce susceptibility to infection, while treatment supported recovery and reduced the disease impact. Quarantine was used to reduce infectious contacts, and educational campaigns were included to encourage protective behaviors.
Among the scenarios tested, the full-control strategy combining all four interventions produced the greatest reduction in infections. Simulations showed a 97.85% reduction in the total number of infected human population compared with the scenario without intervention. The combined strategy also emerged as the most cost-effective option among those tested.
Importantly, the model showed that different interventions may have greater value at different stages of an outbreak. Quarantine and educational campaigns were applied intensively during the early phase, helping to rapidly suppress transmission. Vaccination and treatment were introduced from the beginning and maintained as pharmaceutical measures over the course of the simulated outbreak.
Notably, the analysis considered two important disease states. For the Mpox-free equilibrium, transmission does not persist in either the rodent or the human population. In the endemic equilibrium, the disease persists within both the populations. The results show that while human-to-human transmission plays a key role in short- and medium-term outbreaks, transmission associated with rodents can contribute to longer-term persistence. This suggests that rodents act as a continuous reservoir for Mpox, indicating that animal populations should be accounted for when developing long-term strategies for Mpox management.
These findings will underscore the importance of looking beyond human-to-human transmission when addressing zoonotic diseases such as Mpox. By incorporating both human and rodent populations, the model provides a framework for examining how cross-species transmission could influence the disease's longer-term dynamics, supporting a One Health approach to disease prevention.
By exploring strategies to reduce the transmission and long-term persistence of Mpox and support effective outbreak control, the research aligns most closely with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being). It also speaks to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), as effective control of zoonotic diseases requires coordinated action across public health, healthcare, and animal-health systems.
Prof. Kasbawati highlights, "Mpox control can benefit from a coordinated, multi-layered response rather than reliance on a single intervention. Following this approach, public health authorities can mitigate immediate transmission while also supporting longer-term disease control."
Being based on mathematical simulations rather than observation from a real-world intervention program, further research using real-world epidemiological data and intervention outcomes can help validate and refine the model. Future studies could also explore measures targeting rodent populations that may contribute to persistent transmission.
Overall, the study provides a modeling-based framework for understanding how different public health measures can complement one another. Combining interventions that prevent infection, interrupt transmission, support recovery, and encourage protective behavior, offers a more coordinated and evidence-based approach to reduce Mpox transmission, along with public health preparedness.
