Opening any new North Sea oil and gas fields is incompatible with achieving the Paris Climate Agreement goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C or holding warming to "well below 2°C" relative to preindustrial levels, finds a new report published by UCL academics.
Researchers behind the study, based at the UCL Energy Institute, UCL Department of Political Science and UCL Policy Lab, are now calling on the UK Government to stop licensing new oil and gas exploration, and refuse development consent for already-licensed fields.
On a practical level, this would mean an end to issuing new licences to explore for oil and gas. The researchers also urge the Government to decide against allowing the development of already-licenced North Sea oilfields. This includes the controversial Rosebank and Jackdaw oilfields, whose previous approvals were deemed unlawful by a Scottish court in January this year.
Lead author, Greg Muttitt (UCL Energy Institute) said: "Climate impacts are already threatening people's homes, our farming and our economy, so reducing emissions is now urgent. We've brought together the peer-reviewed scientific literature on oil and gas, which sends a clear message: there's no room for new fields to be opened. When you're in a hole, you have to stop digging."
For the report, the researchers analysed the latest scientific evidence and literature on the climate implications of new oil and gas extraction projects. The report draws on the authors' recent peer-reviewed research papers published in leading academic journals including Science and Nature , as well as hundreds of other peer-reviewed studies, reports and datasets.
They found that if the world burns all the oil and gas in existing fields, the resulting carbon dioxide emissions would warm the planet in excess of the 1.5°C limit established by the Paris Climate Agreement. Any new oil and gas fields would further exacerbate that excess.
The latest estimate of the world's "committed emissions" – the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions created by burning the fossil fuels to be extracted from oil and gas fields that are currently operating or under development – would amount to 469 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. This is approximately three times the amount of carbon dioxide needed to push the planet past 1.5°C of warming.
Researchers say the timing of the study is important because the UK Government is facing at least two significant decisions about new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. First, how to implement its policy of ending new exploration licensing. Second, whether to re-approve development of the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.
In the UK, there's typically a two-stage process for the full development of a new oil field. Companies first receive an award of a license that gives them the right to explore for oil and gas in an area. Upon the discovery of a field, the company can then apply for a development consent to begin to extract oil and gas from the field.
In the report, the UCL researchers recommend stopping all future licenses to explore, and not granting new development consents to fields that have been explored but not yet tapped.
Presently, there are two high profile fields that have been licensed and explored, but have not yet received development consents: The large Rosebank field west of the Shetland Islands and the smaller Jackdaw field east of Aberdeen. A court ruling in January set aside the previously-issued development consents for these fields, finding that the decisions to grant consent unlawfully failed to consider the climate impacts of consuming the fuels produced from these fields. This means that the Government has to make a fresh decision whether to award each consent, after taking into account the climate impacts of the greenhouse gas emissions that will result when the oil and gas is combusted.
Co-author Dr Fergus Green (UCL Political Science) said: "Our report lays out the evidential basis for rejecting new field development consents on climate grounds. More broadly, this is a real chance for the UK Government to show world leadership in an important aspect of climate action. The UK has long been recognised as an influential climate leader. Ending new licences and consents for oil and gas exploration and production would send a powerful signal to the rest of the world about the need to stop expanding fossil fuel production."
Co-author Professor Steve Pye (UCL Energy Institute) said: "The planet has a limited remaining carbon budget and oil and gas production from existing fields is already likely to exceed this limit. It's critical that that in order to meet climate goals under the Paris Agreement, no new oil and gas fields should be permitted. The UK has the opportunity to further demonstrate its role as a global climate leader by restricting new production while ensuring a just transition for the oil and gas sector in the UK."
The researchers also highlighted that it is in the interest of the oil and gas sector to avoid investing in new fields. With the global energy system transitioning to clean energy options, new oil and gas fields run the risk of becoming "stranded assets," investments that fail to achieve their expected commercial returns as the world turns away from fossil fuels.
* The Paris Climate Agreement signed by nearly 200 governments in 2015 includes a commitment to keep the rise in global temperatures "well below" 2°C compared to pre-industrial times, while striving to limit them to 1.5°C.
The 1.5°C target is important because even a small difference in temperature can significantly worsen the impacts of climate change. The 1.5°C target is seen as limiting the risks and costs associated with higher warming to a tolerable level.
