The number of people living with arthritis in Western Australia is projected to increase significantly by 2045, suggests a new Monash University led-report, in collaboration with Curtin University, Arthritis & Osteoporosis WA and HelloJP consulting.
Using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, the report investigated the current and future burden of musculoskeletal conditions in WA to offer critical insights to inform long-term and responsive policy, planning, resource allocation and appropriate care for people who live with these common conditions.
Chronic musculoskeletal health conditions such as arthritis, low back pain and fractures due to osteoporosis are a leading cause of disability globally, affecting populations in all countries and across the lifespan. People living with these conditions experience pain, loss of function, reduced participation in valued activities and lower quality of life.
The report forecasts a dramatic rise in diagnosed cases and the cost of managing chronic musculoskeletal conditions in WA. By 2045, the number of West Australians living with arthritis is projected to increase to 609,858 (equating to an additional 177,874 people relative to 2025 numbers), the number of people with long-term back problems is projected to increase to 597,635 (an additional 135,130 people relative to 2025 numbers) and the number of people with osteoporosis is forecast to increase to 152,694 (an additional 51,780 people relative to 2025 numbers).
Lead author Professor Ilana Ackerman, Deputy Director of Monash University's Musculoskeletal Health Unit, said the increasing burden of musculoskeletal conditions presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Western Australian health system.
"As the population grows and becomes older, and as demand for equitable, timely and person-centred care continues to rise, there is great value in building a more deliberate and co-ordinated approach to improving musculoskeletal health across sectors, particularly in emerging digital technologies to support self-care and clinical care delivery," Professor Ackerman said.
The report found for all of the projection years, the greatest burden of arthritis, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis will be experienced by females. By 2045 the number of females living with these conditions is expected to be 47 per cent higher for arthritis, 74 per cent higher for osteoarthritis, 68 per cent higher for rheumatoid arthritis and 392 per cent higher for osteoporosis when compared with the number of males.
The report also found that based on recent spending levels and the projected number of people with these conditions, annual health system expenditure for osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and long-term back problems is conservatively forecast to exceed $1.03 billion in 2025 and $2.25 billion in 2045.
Co-author Professor Andrew Briggs, from Curtin University's School of Allied Health, said our ability to plan for and provide appropriate care for people who live with musculoskeletal conditions well into the future hinges on a solid understanding of what the future health landscape looks like.
"Western Australia is unique; its demographic, population health and health service delivery contexts are different to other parts of the country. For these reasons we need local data on how to respond to a projected health burden," Professor Briggs said.
He said we will need to co-create responses for the system that scale up accessible, affordable, person-centred service models, especially for vulnerable groups, that support high value care, deploying digital health innovations and prioritising investment in research and innovation for optimal musculoskeletal wellbeing.
Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA, who funded the research, is the leading consumer-based agency in Western Australia focused on musculoskeletal conditions. Ric Forlano, the Executive Director of the Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA, said "The projections are more than numbers, they tell the story of what the future may hold and why action now is so critical. Behind each data point is a person who may one day face the uncertainty and challenges of living with a chronic musculoskeletal condition. By investing in prevention, ensuring timely access to high-quality care and strengthening health workforce capabilities, these projections can help shape a future for WA where support is available when and where it is needed most."
Access to the report is available upon request.
The report launch event details:
Tuesday 2 December 2025
5.00pm to 6.30pm
Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA
17 Lemnos Street, Shenton Park WA 6008
Registration Link: It's Time to Prioritise Musculoskeletal Health in WA
*Free parking is available at the front of the building and in the rear carpark via Bedbrook Place.
