As New Zealand's budget day looms closer, the government has already revealed one important figure - NZ$2.1 billion - that offers an insight into its approach to spending this year.
That's the government's tight operating allowance - or the new money available for ongoing spending. And that's already been trimmed back from $2.4 billion since its budget strategy was announced in December.
The $300 million cut is small relative to total operating expenses, but still significant.
Operating spending funds ongoing commitments, such as public servants' salaries, benefits and superannuation payments . It also covers the costs of keeping services running: think medicines for hospitals, or electricity for school classrooms.
Operating allowances, meanwhile, determine how much room the government has for new policies and for meeting cost pressures in these areas.
Ahead of Thursday's budget, those pressures are already intensifying. The outlook now points to higher near-term inflation than was anticipated when the budget strategy was released five months ago, driven in part by rising oil prices following the US-Iran conflict .
If costs rise faster than operating funding, the government faces increasingly difficult choices over what it can continue to fund, expand or cut back.
The risks behind the cuts
We also now know a little about what some of those choices will look like.
Last week, it was announced government agencies' operating budgets will be cut by 2% in the coming year, followed by a further 5% in each of the following two years.
The government's wider reform programme also includes reducing core public service employment to no more than 55,000 full-time equivalent roles by July 2029.
The savings will be redirected to health, education, building infrastructure, defence and police. All of these are worthy causes for extra funding, and in principle, there is nothing wrong with asking whether existing spending delivers value and reallocating spending to where it makes the greatest impact.
But, as always, the devil is in the detail - and this is not yet known. It matters where in health, education or policing the extra money goes. It also matters which public service roles are cut, because so-called "back-office functions" can still be essential to delivering frontline services.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has suggested greater use of artificial intelligence could help the public service do more with less. But some international studies have found higher AI adoption has yet to translate into higher productivity.
If AI does not deliver substantial productivity gains in the public sector, restraint in government spending will ultimately show up somewhere: in deferred maintenance, scaled-back programmes or lower service levels.
Inflation, resilience and the politics of spending
Rising operating costs are not the only impact that inflation has on the government's books.
In some ways, it can help. Higher prices and wages can lift tax revenue through the goods and services tax (GST), income tax and company tax receipts. Inflation can also inflate nominal gross domestic product - the dollar value of economic activity - which in turn can make government debt appear smaller relative to the size of the economy.
In other ways, however, inflation adds pressure. Interest costs can rise as government debt is refinanced at higher rates, while benefit payments and other spending tied to inflation or wages also increase.
Meanwhile, the government has announced it is increasing capital spending , which funds long-lived assets such as roads, hospitals, schools, defence equipment and infrastructure.
This would appear a sensible move, given that New Zealand faces an infrastructure deficit in many areas . Addressing it could help bring a much-needed improvement in productivity.
There is also the wider question of New Zealand's economic resilience.
Independent economist and commentator David Skilling has argued global supply chains are being rewired. Where efficiency and just-in-time delivery once took priority for nations, a more unstable geopolitical environment is now shifting the focus toward resilience and security.
In this context, government capital investment can help address vulnerabilities in New Zealand's critical supply chains - even if its small-economy status means it will always remain dependent on overseas trade.
At the same time, capital spending can also come with political and economic risks. For instance, projects might be chosen more for their political appeal than for whether they genuinely strengthen productivity or supply chain resilience.
Budget 2026 will therefore represent a test of priorities.
Reprioritisation, allocations from the smaller operating allowance and new capital spending should all face the same question: where will public money produce the greatest value?
The answer should be based on economic and strategic need, rather than political visibility or electoral advantage.
Michael Ryan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
