We'll start off by looking at the current satellite imagery overlaying with the radar, highlighting that we've had these hit-and-miss showers and storms across the area, but they've now cleared from South Australia. These showers and storms are being driven by this low pressure trough that's moving eastwards, with the showers and storms clearing from the western and central parts later this afternoon and this evening, contracting into eastern parts during Saturday.
Now shifting focus to this low pressure trough out in western parts of South Australia, we've got gusty north-westerly winds ahead of it really starting to build heat through that area, while this cold front will tap into that trough and start to move it eastwards. As we head into Sunday, hit-and-miss showers and storms will really start to develop throughout central parts as a cloud band taps into some tropical moisture from off the coast of Western Australia.
The showers and storms are expected to push into western parts of Victoria and Tasmania during Sunday afternoon into the evening. However, it's on Sunday night into Monday morning that the cloud band will really start to thicken up, with rain areas and storms pushing across the area. Early Monday morning is expected to be very wet for the Melbourne area, with that cloud and rain band continuing to move eastwards.
So how much rainfall are we expecting? This is showing the accumulated rainfall between now through until Monday night. The heaviest rainfall totals will be about elevated areas of Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania. However, there are widespread rainfall totals of 10 mm right across the area, with the potential for 20 mm to 30 mm through these orange areas.
As we head into Tuesday, that rain band and cloud band will continue moving eastwards, with showers and storms expected to develop through those areas. I just want to shift the focus to this low pressure system down here. A cut-off low is expected to develop over south-eastern Australia on Tuesday. However, at the moment, there's a lot of difference between the exact location and strength of the low between the models.
This particular scenario is showing the low developing over the Bass Strait and moving over Tasmania. However, another model includes the low developing over northern Victoria and southern New South Wales, and it's the exact position of that low that will largely determine where the greatest impacts will be. But at this stage, it's likely that Tuesday for Melbourne Cup will be a cool to cold day and wet as well with the potential for heavy rainfall near the centre of that low.
Let's take a look at the temperatures. For Saturday, you can see the heat really building over western parts of South Australia, reaching up to the low 40s in places, remaining relatively mild throughout the south-east, 21 °C for Melbourne and also for Hobart. By Sunday, this will be the peak heat day for Victoria and Tasmania, with Melbourne 30 °C and Hobart 27 °C, but it will be relatively short-lived. By Monday, just 16 °C for Melbourne, and Hobart and Adelaide 18 °C, with those much cooler conditions persisting into Tuesday. For Melbourne Cup, just 16 °C is on the forecast for Melbourne.
The main watch points are the north-west cloud band developing across the country on Sunday for central parts and pushing into eastern parts on Monday and Tuesday, and of course, that cut-off low pressure system over the south-east on Tuesday.
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