The UCI-OC Poll , conducted by the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine and released today, surveyed 1,202 Orange County adults from March 24 through 31 in English and Spanish.
Trump received 35% approval among Orange County residents, compared to 62% disapproval — meaning nearly two-thirds of residents view his performance negatively, according to the poll.
"This level of disapproval is striking in a county that is often closely divided politically," says Jon B. Gould , poll director and dean of the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology.
Trump's support is almost entirely confined to his Republican base, where more than 80% approve of him. Independents, however, are strongly negative, with 70% disapproving and only about a quarter approving. Among Democrats, disapproval is at 95%.
Younger voters are among Trump's harshest critics, with disapproval rates ranging from 65% to nearly 80%. White residents are his most supportive demographic, approaching an even split, while Latino and Asian residents broadly disapprove.
"As one of the very few purple counties in America, what happens here in Orange County is a reflection of what's going on nationwide," Gould says. "If so many voters here are dissatisfied, that should be a big warning sign to this administration that there is a problem they need to address – and soon."
Poor Ratings
Newsom fares only marginally better than Trump, with 38% approving and 55% disapproving. His support among Democrats — at roughly 70% — is weaker than Republican support for Trump within their respective bases, according to the survey.
Republicans are overwhelmingly negative, with nearly 9 in 10 disapproving of Newsom.
Independents give Newsom approval ratings of 30%, with disapproval in the mid-50% range.
"Independents rate both Trump and Newsom negatively, reinforcing a broader pattern of dissatisfaction with leadership at both the state and national levels," Gould writes in the poll report .
The disapproval of Trump and Newsom reflects a broader mood of pessimism, Gould notes.
Large majorities say the country (62% wrong track vs. 30% right track) and California (57% wrong track vs. 31% right track) are headed in the wrong direction — numbers that closely mirror a 2024 post-election poll, suggesting entrenched dissatisfaction rather than a reaction to recent events, he explains.
That frustration may be driving voters away from both parties, Gould points out. Orange County residents identify as 34% Democrat, 30% Republican and 36% independent or something else — making it, in effect, a closely divided, independent-leaning county.
"Rather than moving decisively toward one party, a significant share of voters remain outside traditional party structures," Gould says.
Governor's Race Wide Open
With California's June primary approaching, the 2026 gubernatorial contest is far from settled among Orange County voters. Twenty-five percent say they are undecided, and another 6% say they would not vote, meaning nearly one in three has yet to make a choice, according to the poll.
When voters are pushed to express a preference, Republican commentator Steve Hilton leads the field at 23%. Behind him, the race is essentially tied, with Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, Democratic businessman Tom Steyer and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, each drawing 14% support.
Republican candidates' early lead partly reflects higher engagement among GOP voters at this stage, with Democratic and independent voters remaining more undecided, the poll shows.
Despite the unsettled governor's race, Democrats hold a 13-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 34% — a margin that exceeds the party identification gap, indicating Democrats are drawing support beyond their base, particularly among Latino, Asian and younger voters.
The poll also reveals a sharp generational divide on economic ideology.
While capitalism retains majority support overall — especially among older residents — Gen Z is the only age group with net negative views of the economic system, with 52% viewing it negatively and just 35% positively. Millennials are more closely divided. Support for socialism peaks among younger generations, ranging from 42% to 45%, and falls sharply among older residents.
"These results point to a clear generational divide in economic attitudes, even as capitalism remains the more widely accepted system overall," Gould explains.
He summarized the findings as a portrait of an electorate defined not by partisan realignment but by uncertainty and discontent.
"This poll portrays an electorate that is closely divided, modestly attached to political parties, and broadly dissatisfied with leadership at both the state and national levels," Gould says. "Rather than signaling a sharp partisan shift, the results point to a political environment defined by uncertainty, fluidity, and voters who have yet to fully settle on their choices."
