The MDBA has released its Annual Operating Outlook for 2025-26, which outlines how the River Murray System might be managed under different water availability scenarios for the year ahead.
The report outlines 6 possible scenarios, ranging from extreme dry to wet conditions. These scenarios are developed as a tool to inform active management of water to meet system needs.
As at 1 June 2025, active storage shared across Dartmouth Dam, Hume Reservoir, Menindee Lakes and Lake Victoria were at 56%.
MDBA Senior Director, River Operations Tom Zouch said while inflows for July were below-average, water transfers from Dartmouth Dam to Hume had already occurred to help meet the forecast demands over the coming months.
"We're currently sitting around the middle of the 'dry' planning scenarios and we're actively managing the system to stay ahead of need," Mr Zouch said.
"We're prepared for a range of conditions and we're well placed to meet demands down the Murray this year, even if dry conditions persist."
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting the chance of above-average rainfall through winter and spring, which could boost inflows and improve the outlook.
If conditions turn wet, storages at Dartmouth and Hume have capacity to capture inflows and boost resources.
Mr Zouch said while the risk of water delivery shortfall can never be fully ruled out in periods of heat and high demand, the MDBA will continue to monitor and actively manage the risk.
"Water for the environment remains a key part of river operations this year, with plans for multiple watering events to support river health.
"There are also some water quality risks to keep an eye on this year. The MDBA will continue to provide regular updates through its monthly water quality threats map ."
An update to the outlook will be published after October 2025, or earlier if conditions change significantly.
