Following the report published in 2019 by the UN panel on biodiversity (IPBES), the government of the Netherlands aims to halve the footprint of Dutch consumption by 2050 as part of efforts to restore and conserve biodiversity. Wageningen Economic Research's KOEVOET project ('Cost-effective improvements to the size and depth of footprints') is investigating which policy measures are potentially effective in halving the footprint of consumption in the Netherlands. The project is focused on how food consumption in the Netherlands affects the overall footprint.
KOEVOET is using a tool known as the Biodiversity Footprint Family Framework (BFFF), to fully assess the effects of policy measures on biodiversity. This footprint family integrates footprint indicators for land, water, greenhouse gases and nutrients (phosphate and nitrogen). The KOEVOET project is developing a methodology to calculate this biodiversity footprint. The aim is to use this methodology to model the effects of policy measures on the global economy, and then to translate these effects into a potential reduction of the biodiversity footprint.
Initial test using an exploratory policy scenario
To ensure the quality of the methodology, a test was first carried out and the results of that test have been set out in the policy summary 'Reducing the biodiversity footprint'. The test was conducted using an exploratory policy scenario. This consisted of four measures:
- a 50% reduction in the consumption of animal products in the EU by 2050
- a 30% increase in consumer preference for meat in the EU by 2050
- a 20% increase in consumer preference for products sourced within the EU
- a 4% increase in protected landscapes in the EU by 2050.
To validate the methodology, the policy scenario was compared with a reference scenario. This scenario modelled anticipated changes in the world, such as population growth, for the period from 2014 to 2050 (in line with expectations set out in the shared socio-economic pathways, or SSPs).
Both scenarios were modelled in the macroeconomic equilibrium model MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool). MAGNET is widely used to simulate the impacts of policies in areas such as agriculture on the global economy.
Impact of policy measures on production and consumption limited to the EU
According to this analysis the reference scenario reveals an increase in demand for animal products (such as meat, eggs and dairy), resulting in an expected increase in the production of animal products and cereals for fodder in the EU. On the other hand, the exploratory policy scenario shows a decrease in demand for animal products in the EU, while demand for fish, pulses, oilseeds (such as soya, sunflower seeds, rapeseed) and nuts actually increases. This shift is caused by a change in dietary patterns and preferences for EU goods.
Outside the EU's borders, however, global production and consumption do not appear to change significantly under the policy scenario.
Far-reaching measures are not enough to halve footprint
This first test shows that in the reference scenario, the biodiversity footprint of consumption in the Netherlands in 2050 will be reduced by about 2% compared to 2014. The effects of the measures taken in the exploratory policy scenario lead to a much greater decrease in the biodiversity footprint - a decline of around 28% in 2050 compared to 2014. This decrease is mainly attributed to the decline in animal-based production, which has a particularly significant impact in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Even so, the analysis still shows an increase in land, water and nutrient footprints.
Growing interest in footprints
Interest in footprints is growing both in the scientific community and among policymakers, but it's still an evolving area of study. This makes it challenging for researchers to effectively convey complex concepts around footprints to policymakers. The KOEVOET project is therefore working closely with policymakers at the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV) to support a continuous exchange of knowledge and experiences on footprints. This interaction is testament to the growing interest in footprints, but has also highlighted many other unanswered research questions. KOEVOET will continue to address these in 2024. In this context, a second policy scenario will be developed this year, and in parallel, the methodology for measuring footprints will be further improved, including the addition of the chemical footprint.
