Rain Bands Sweep Southern Australia

I'm Angus here at the Bureau of Meteorology. This is our Severe Weather Update for the 30th of June. And let's start off with some observations by way of the rain radar.

This is showing us what has already fallen in the last 12 hours.

And we could see two areas of rain really across the country, the first in the east and south-east.

This has been bringing some decent falls to parts of inland New South Wales, much of regional Victoria, northern parts of Tasmania, even a little bit of rain in southern interior Queensland.

Yesterday this bought some rain to South Australia.

On the other side of the country we've got some wet weather too, not quite so cohesive of a band of rain, but certainly some showery conditions over the southern corner of Western Australia, bringing some pretty wintry weather around Perth at the moment and other parts of the far south-west.

Now these are two of our weather systems that we are going to be tracking over the course of the next few days.

So let's jump into the forecast now and we'll see this eastern system moves off the country by the end of the day today, weakening as it does so.

And by tonight the western system is the one which is going to be taking precedence.

Now this will be crossing the border between Western Australia and South Australia about midnight tonight.

So Tuesday this becomes the main focal point for central and eastern parts of the country.

Initially it races across South Australia on Wednesday morning, then across to the eastern states into Wednesday afternoon, with another broad band of rain stretching from the interior of Queensland throughout New South Wales and across Tasmania and Victoria as well.

Now for tomorrow, for Wednesday it's not just the rain which could be a factor, but we're certainly expecting some thunderstorm activity to develop along this weather system as it sweeps eastwards.

And here is our thunderstorm forecast for Wednesday. Now in particular, draw your eye to the yellow and the red on the map here.

That shows where severe thunderstorms could occur. And the severe thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the red area.

So let's zoom in a little bit.

Reminder of some of the hazards that severe thunderstorms do tend to bring, now damaging to destructive wind gusts.

We could see damaging winds through any of these yellow or red areas, but the risk for destructive wind gusts is out here towards the tri-state border.

Eastern parts of South Australia, south-western parts of New South Wales, north-western parts of Victoria.

With those winds could really be strongest from about lunchtime into the afternoon tomorrow.

We could also see some large hailstones across this red, maybe into the yellow area as well, and the potential for some pockets of heavy rainfall as these severe thunderstorms do get very active throughout the course of Wednesday afternoon.

Beyond Wednesday looking into Thursday, we've got our second band of rain out to the east and off the country, quickly followed up by a third band of wet weather.

This one's coming up from the south and it's a little bit different compared to the last two. This one will be starting off in the Southern Ocean, so it's much colder.

That means temperatures are dropping.

It's really feeling like winter, and this weather system could bring some snow to alpine areas towards the end of the week.

So with three bands of rain moving across southern Australia through the course of the next 4 to 5 days, what are we looking at in terms of total rainfall amounts.

Here is our full week's worth of rainfall compiled onto one map between now and the end of the day, Friday.

And let's hone in on south-eastern parts of the country, which is where we're likely to see the most significant falls. So take a look for the dark reds leading into purple colours.

That's where we could see well in excess of 50 mm, possibly up to 100 mm, and likely some alpine areas above 100 mm of rain in the coming days.

So for Tasmania, we're really looking across the north coast and the northern slopes of the ranges. Much of Victoria towards that higher end of the spectrum.

But those largest values likely to be across the north-eastern ranges.

For New South Wales, it's the south-eastern ranges which are looking to pick up the most rain.

That's the Snowy Mountains and parts of the Southern Tablelands, but decent falls through all western slopes and plains out towards the Riverina and into the western districts, as well.

Do take a note that most of the rain is going to fall west of the Great Dividing Range and the east coast here just some greens and blues.

Much, much lower rainfall for the week.

So if you live on the east coast, you're not seeing the worst of this weather system.

With rainfall numbers this high, does get us thinking is there a potential for flooding?

And there certainly is a potential for flooding, especially across north-eastern Victoria in the coming few days. We've already got one Flood Warning issued.

That's a minor flood warning for the Kiewa River in the far north-east.

But there's a much broader Flood Watch area which covers approximately this area here through the north-east of Victoria and parts of the far south of New South Wales, where there's about 8 to 10 rivers under Flood Watch that's saying, heads up there's a chance that there's flooding on the way through the next few days that could be minor, moderate or potentially even major flooding.

So definitely keep an eye on this space and stay up to date with the warnings throughout the course of the week ahead.

Now, primarily we're talking about flooding and rain, but there's also going to be some damaging wind gusts.

This is a damaging wind warning for alpine areas in north-eastern Victoria.

It's been windy there this morning.

Gusts of 100 km to 110 km an hour already reported, with more potential on the way today and then again through the next couple of days.

So just finally wanting to wrap up a couple of the weather hazards that we're watching out for with this prolonged spell of rain.

Really one of the key ones is that riverine flooding as rivers rise and maybe burst their banks, leading to flooding in some areas, most likely in northern Victoria.

Really dangerous conditions on the roads with lots of water, potentially some branches getting thrown around by those strong winds.

And one thing I've barely even mentioned, but if you live down on the coastline, we could be seeing some really large waves and some very high tides.

That includes Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania.

So keep on the lookout for local warnings or tidal information for your area.

So lots going on across the country this week.

Stay up to date with the latest warnings, the latest forecasts on the Bureau's website.

You can keep an eye on the rain radar on the website and the app, as well.

Pretty good week to be watching that rain.

Thanks so much for watching.