While reported crime is down in New Mexico's most populous county, according to data from the Albuquerque Police Department and national numbers (2023), its jail population is not. A new study from The University of New Mexico's Institute for Social Research (ISR) shows Bernalillo County's Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) is seeing an increase in population.
According to the May 2025 study, Review of the Metropolitan Detention Center Population, MDC's population has been growing. Citing data from 2019 through 2024, the jail experienced a 30% increase in its population. Research shows that within the last six months, the jail population has been at its highest level since July 2014.
"The real concern is who we have in jail, why we have them in jail, how long they are in jail, and whether they should be in jail. When the jail population starts increasing, it's useful to understand what's causing that," researcher Paul Guerin said.
There are several reasons why Guerin, the director of the Center for Applied Research and Analysis (CARA), and other researchers believe the local jail population is growing.
- More Bookings: An increase in bookings, particularly the proportion for felony charges and felony warrants, is having an impact. According to the report, approximately 2,000 people are booked into the jail monthly. Guerin notes that the research hasn't identified a specific statute that has directly led to the rise in bookings; however, it is an area they want to investigate further. For instance, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham activated the New Mexico National Guard to assist the Albuquerque Police Department, allowing more officers to focus on their duties that address crime, including answering calls for service. Guerin suggests that this order could contribute to an increase in bookings.
- Length of Stay: How long a person stays in jail leads to a higher population, according to the study. This intersects with another ISR report about pretrial detention within Bernalillo County, saying more than 40% of people held on a felony pretrial detention motion are not convicted and are released on average 120 days after they were booked. Booking more individuals on felony charges and felony warrants leads to longer lengths of stay.
- Recidivism: The report shows there's a large number of people who continue to come back to jail, also contributing to the population growth. The report notes that nearly 40% of those who come to jail will return two or more times after release in the same year. In nine years following release, around 64% of people are booked at least once more. "If we stop that from happening, you'd reduce the jail population, which is good for social and economic reasons. Cost, it's expensive to house someone in jail. Socially, people lose their jobs in jail, lose connection to their families," Guerin said.
Keep in mind, studies indicate approximately 45% of the jail's population on any given day has a behavioral health diagnosis, including substance use disorders. Previous research from ISR shows methadone and other substance use disorder treatments in jails can reduce recidivism after studying a program within MDC.
While the population has increased, the study shows MDC is not overcrowded, with approximately 80% capacity as of May, which is below the McClendon cap. Notably, Guerin says the jail hasn't been overcrowded for the last decade, adding that the local criminal justice system has enacted several initiatives, such as bail reform, the court case management order, and an early plea program, to address overcrowding.
"Our jail is not overcrowded, it's not above capacity, but that doesn't mean it's not bloated. That doesn't mean there are people behind bars who don't spend too long there or maybe don't belong there," he said.
According to the report, nationally, some jail populations are increasing and may continue to climb in the next few years, not because of changes in crime, but because local criminal justice systems have recovered from the pandemic slowdowns and differences in how crimes are prosecuted and sentenced. Guerin and other researchers on campus have been studying the county's jail population since the 1990s, when crime peaked (the MDC population peaked in August 2012).
"I think part of the reason to do it now was COVID and the impact. The jail population went down during the pandemic. Now, things are back to where they were pre-COVID, and we're a little higher than that," he said. "I think it's useful from a policy standpoint to look at these issues consistently and systemically over time and not ignore them. Also, the jail population gives us some indication of crime in the city."
Next, researchers will examine arrest data more closely, which Guerin claims is difficult to obtain.
