A study examining more than 40 years of homicide trends has revealed generational, gendered, and racial inequalities.
The first detailed long-term study – from experts at the Universities of Nottingham, Warwick and Nottingham Trent – of homicide trends in England and Wales was presented at a research symposium at the Royal Society of Arts, London, on 22 September, in partnership with charity SAMM (Support After Murder and Manslaughter), and ahead of the National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Homicide on 25 September.
Key findings of the study, Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales (1977–2019) include:
- Generational impact of politics: Those who grew up during the Thatcher era were at greater risk of homicide across their life course, showing how political and social contexts can shape vulnerability to violence.
- Racialised access to justice: Young Black male victims are disproportionately affected by homicide as they are less likely to have a suspect identified; even when suspects are identified, their cases are more likely to end in acquittal.
- Gendered patterns of violence: While women's risk of homicide has declined over time, it remains overwhelmingly rooted in familial and intimate relationships. By contrast, men's homicide risk has risen sharply over the last 40 years, especially among younger men, a trend that remains poorly understood and often overlooked.
Study Co-Investigator Stephen Farrall, Professor of Criminology in the School of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Nottingham, said:
Although murder is amongst the crimes most feared in many countries, it is still, at least in England & Wales, very uncommon. Our research suggests that homicide rates, however, are affected by longer-term social trends and social policies, especially those relating to women's position in the economy."
The symposium discussion panel brought together academics, policymakers, and NGOs, and included Claire Waxman OBE, the Victims' Commissioner, and Dame Nicole Jacobs, the Domestic Abuse Commissioner.
Dr Emily Gray, Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Warwick, and the study's lead researcher, added: "Our research shows that homicide fluctuates alongside policy environments. Inequalities and wider social and cultural change all shape lethal violence. Some developments have saved lives, while others have made things worse. Governments, institutions, and communities have the power not only to reduce violence, but also to determine how its consequences are felt — particularly for families left behind."
Claire Waxman OBE, added: "All too often, families bereaved by murder or manslaughter are made to feel that their needs are peripheral throughout the criminal justice process. I welcome that this symposium brings their lived experiences into sharp focus. Their insights and expertise, alongside data on long-term homicide trends, are essential to shaping a fairer, more trauma-informed justice system that centres the rights of victims and their families."
The ESRC-funded study was led by Dr Emily Gray of the University of Warwick, in collaboration with Professor Stephen Farrall of the University of Nottingham, and Professor Andromachi Tseloni of Nottingham Trent University.
