Research Unveils Predictable Wolf-Human Conflict Patterns

Koç University

A long-term study examining wolf–human interactions in Türkiye reveals the delicate balance between ecology and society.

Living close to nature does not always mean living in harmony. Across many regions of Türkiye, the boundaries between wildlife habitats and human activity are becoming increasingly blurred. When large predators such as wolves are involved, these encounters can have serious consequences—for both people and animals.

An international research published in the Journal of Environmental Management , co-authored by Prof. Dr. Çağan H. Şekercioğlu from Koç University's Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics and the University of Utah, investigates wolf–human interactions in Türkiye using long-term data.

By analyzing when, where, and why conflicts occur, the research sheds light not only on wildlife dynamics but also on the social and economic realities of rural life.

Why Are Conflicts Increasing?

The primary aim of the study was to determine whether encounters between wolves and humans—or their livestock—are random events or follow identifiable patterns. To answer this question, the researchers analyzed nearly two decades of nationwide data, combining records of wolf attacks with information on livestock practices, geographic features, and human settlements.

The findings are strikingly clear. Wolf–human conflicts tend to cluster in specific regions, most of which overlap with areas where rural livestock farming is widespread. Attacks increase particularly during periods when sheep and goats are grazed in open landscapes. Seasonal cycles, grazing practices, and habitat characteristics all play a direct role in shaping these encounters.

The study also highlights the influence of human-driven factors. Road networks, proximity to settlements, and habitat fragmentation significantly increase the risk of conflict. In other words, the issue is not solely about wolf behavior—how humans use and transform the landscape is an equally critical part of the equation.

A Keystone Species, a Source of Social Tension

Wolves are widely recognized as a keystone species, playing a crucial role in maintaining ecological balance by regulating prey populations. At the same time, for people living in rural areas, wolves can represent economic loss and a source of insecurity.

The research underscores this fundamental tension: conserving wildlife while sustaining rural livelihoods requires a carefully balanced approach. Conservation efforts that overlook the needs and concerns of local communities risk backfiring. As conflicts intensify, negative perceptions of wildlife can grow stronger, ultimately undermining conservation goals.

One of the study's most important contributions is its demonstration that many conflicts are predictable. By developing risk maps, the researchers show that it is possible to anticipate where and under what conditions wolf–human encounters are most likely to occur. This opens the door to proactive, preventive strategies rather than reactive responses after damage has already been done.

The authors emphasize that there is no single solution. Effective coexistence depends on a combination of approaches, including:

  • Conservation strategies developed in collaboration with local communities
  • Fair compensation mechanisms for livestock losses
  • Education and awareness programs
  • Land-use planning that aligns with ecological realities

Together, these measures are critical for enabling more sustainable coexistence between people and wildlife.

Is Living with Nature Truly Possible?

This study offers valuable insights not only for academic audiences but also for people across rural Türkiye who confront the realities of living alongside wildlife every day. By integrating long-term data analysis, spatial modeling, and the experiences of local communities, the research demonstrates how bridges can be built between conservation policies and social realities.

Conducted through international collaboration led by Prof. Dr. Çağan H. Şekercioğlu, the study stands out as a meaningful contribution that enriches both the scientific understanding and the societal perspective on wildlife management in Türkiye.

/Public Release. This material from the originating organization/author(s) might be of the point-in-time nature, and edited for clarity, style and length. Mirage.News does not take institutional positions or sides, and all views, positions, and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s).View in full here.