With extreme weather events, fires and floods growing increasingly common, general warnings are no longer adequate. Researchers at Uppsala University, in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization and others, now call for change – from mass mailings to personalised warnings that actually persuade people to act.
Every year, natural disasters claim thousands of human lives all over the world. Despite advanced warning systems, again and again people fail to act in time. The problem is not a lack of technical capacity, but the way in which the warnings are communicated. This point is made in a new research article in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.
"In practice, a warning that fails to lead to action is a failure," says Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Professor of Hydrology at the Department of Earth Sciences and co-author. "The next major step in reducing the risk of disasters must be psychological and social – not just technical."
From general alarms to personalised advice
Current early warning systems are often based on general messages to large groups. However, research shows that people's behaviour, situation and circumstances vary widely and that this determines how they react to warnings.
The researchers therefore suggest that the UN's global initiative Early Warnings for All (EW4All) should be further developed to become Early Warnings for All and You (EW4All+U), with a possibility of supplementing warnings with personalised information. This could involve the warning taking account of your location, how mobile you are, whether you have children or elderly relatives with you, and then giving specific advice based on your particular situation.
"Saying something is dangerous is not enough. People need to know exactly what they should do, when and how – based on their own circumstances," says lead author Ilias Pechlivanidis, docent, researcher and project manager at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute's hydrology research unit and visiting research fellow at the Department of Earth Sciences.
The technology exists – but is not used to the full
With the help of geodata, mobile technology, AI and satellites, it is already possible to send location-based warnings in real time. In a forest fire, for example, such a system could guide people to the closest safe place based on their current position and local conditions.
Despite this, at present the technology is mainly used in pilot projects or at concept level. Major challenges remain when it comes to scaling up the solutions, integrating them in existing warning systems and ensuring that they work for different types of dangers and for the entire population.
Understanding psychological factors is especially important: what persuades people to trust a warning? What type of wording increases the likelihood that they will actually follow the advice?
A call to researchers and decision-makers
The researchers behind EW4All+U now call for coordinated initiatives in research, technology and guidelines. The goal is to advance from general alarms to personalised warnings that save lives – regardless of social, technical or geographical conditions.
"Natural events cannot be stopped, but disasters are preventable. Personal warnings are not visions for the future – they are a necessity here and now," says Pechlivanidis.
The study is a collaboration between researchers at Uppsala University, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) at the European Commission.
