With the New Zealand election two-and-a-half weeks away, the latest 1News Verian poll has the right extending its lead over the left, meaning the right may be able to win a majority without relying on the Opportunity Party (if it enters parliament).
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Other recently released polls also have the right continuing to lead.
The Verian polls for 1News have been released every week since late September. The latest was conducted October 15-19 from a sample of 1,003: National had 32% of the party list vote (up four since the October 8-12 Verian poll), Labour 27% (down one), the Greens 16% (up one), ACT 11% (up one), NZ First 8% (down two), Opportunity 7% (down one) and Te Pāti Māori 0.7% (up 0.3).
Adding the votes for the right parties (National, ACT and NZ First) and comparing with the combined votes for the left parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori) gives the right a 7.3-point lead over the left, up from 4.6 points in the previous Verian poll.
This poll has Opportunity at 7%. But even if Opportunity is added to the left parties, the right leads by enough for a tie. The right is close to winning enough seats to govern without Opportunity in this poll.
For the left to form a government with Opportunity, it would need Te Pāti Māori to benefit from an overhang by winning more single-member electorates than its party vote would entitle it to.
The right's gain may be explained by the ratio of respondents expecting the economy to improve rather than get worse in the next 12 months (43-21, compared to 39-25 previously). This is the lowest "get worse" rating in Verian polls this year. In April, respondents expected the economy to get worse by 52-26.
Other polls
Other than the Verian polls, there have been three recent polls from Curia for the Taxpayers' Union, Anacta (formerly Talbot Mills) and Freshwater Strategy for The Post.
In the Curia poll, conducted October 1-5 from a sample of 1,000, the right had a 6.8-point lead, up from 6.1 points in the early September Curia poll. Opportunity had 4.8% (up 0.3) but was below the 5% needed to enter parliament without winning a single-member electorate.
In the Anacta poll, conducted October 6-10 from a sample of 1,352, the right had a 1.1-point lead, down from three points in early September. Opportunity had 5.4% (down 1.6), just over the threshold.
In the Freshwater poll, conducted October 9-19 from a sample of 1,458, the right had a 3.4-point lead, down from five points in early September. Opportunity had 5.4% (down 0.6), just over the threshold.
The graph below visualises these poll results. Two weeks ago , the Reid Research poll gave the left a 2.1-point lead, but that now looks like an outlier. The right's lead has increased in the Verian and Curia polls, though it decreased in the Freshwater and Anacta polls.
In Curia, Anacta and Freshwater, Opportunity was either just below or just above the 5% threshold. Even if it made the 5% threshold in Curia, the right would still have a majority with its 6.8-point lead. In the other two polls, the right would win a majority if Opportunity fails to make the threshold, but not if it does.
Polls have been conducted of the seven Māori electorates between mid-September and early October from samples of 500-700 per electorate. These suggest Te Pāti Māori will win three and Labour four.
Te Pāti Māori is relying on winning Māori electorates to ensure its return to parliament, as its party vote is well below the 5% threshold. If it wins three Māori electorates on only 1% of the party vote, it will exceed its entitlement of one seat, causing a two-seat overhang. Parliament would be expanded to 122 seats from its nominal 120.
The Greens are at 13-16% in the latest polls. If replicated at the election, this would be a swing to the Greens from 11.6% at the 2023 election .
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
