As global energy transitions accelerate, distributed PV systems have become a cornerstone of rural energy transformation in China, shifting rural households from passive energy consumers to active prosumers. However, low household electricity demand, limited grid capacity, and complex stakeholder interactions hinder widespread adoption.
To address these challenges, researchers Wenbing Zhou and Songlin Tang from the School of Economics at Shandong Technology and Business University developed a multi-agent dynamic game model. The model incorporates four core stakeholders: village organizations, PV enterprises, grid companies, and rural households, analyzing their strategic choices and behavioral mechanisms.
"The rural distributed PV ecosystem is a complex network of interactions," said Songlin Tang, corresponding author of the study. "Our model captures the heterogeneity of rural households and the critical role of grid companies, filling gaps in previous research that overlooked these key factors."
The study's scenario simulations yielded three key findings. First, collaboration between PV enterprises and village organizations to promote the surplus electricity feed-in model is most effective for expanding PV adoption. Rural households with low electricity demand prefer the full feed-in model, while high-demand households favor the surplus feed-in approach.
Second, overpromotion of the surplus electricity feed-in model can lead to significant curtailment. "Increasing self-consumption requirements helps reduce waste, but it may also limit total installed capacity," Tang explained. "Finding the right balance is essential for efficient energy use."
Third, rising rural household incomes boost investment in the surplus electricity feed-in model, but grid capacity constraints ultimately limit investment efficiency. "Blind grid upgrades without corresponding growth in electricity demand result in inefficient investments," Tang noted. "Grid capacity remains the decisive factor for long-term development."
The research team tested multiple strategy sets, finding that PV enterprises achieve higher profitability through equipment sales rather than direct project investment. Village organizations also benefit more from collaborating with PV enterprises on promotion, as their local knowledge reduces information asymmetry and accelerates adoption.
Sensitivity analyses further confirmed that household income and grid upgrade costs are key influencing factors. Higher-income households are more likely to invest in PV systems, but low-income households adopting the surplus feed-in model face higher curtailment risks due to lower electricity demand.
"The study provides a scientific basis for policy design," Tang said. "We recommend deepening village-enterprise cooperation, establishing dynamic self-consumption ratio mechanisms based on grid capacity, and implementing regionally differentiated development strategies."
Looking ahead, the research team plans to expand the model by incorporating policy subsidy adjustments and energy storage technology development. They also aim to conduct empirical tests in specific rural regions to refine their recommendations for practical application.
This work was supported by General Project of the National Social Science Fund of China, Research on the Pathway of Rural Energy Transition in China from the Prosumer Perspective (21BJY113), Scientific Research Start-up Fund Project of Shandong Technology and Business University, and Mechanism and Pathway of Low-carbon Transition in the Power Sector from a Regional Coordination Perspective (306657).
