Severe Thunderstorms Target East and North

Today is Saturday the 15th of November. I'm Angus and this is a Severe Weather Update.

The first thing I want to show you is the most recent satellite image, highlighting the broad area of cloud over central Australia. Cloud is also starting to build across the eastern states. It is not quite as cloudy there just yet, but cloud cover is increasing as we speak. This is mainly due to the level of moisture in the atmosphere.

This map shows precipitable water, and where we see the dark greens and blues, there is a lot of moisture available to form cloud and rain. That moisture will fuel the development of thunderstorms later today. There is a large area of moisture along the eastern side of the country, and we will see that reflected in the thunderstorm outlook map for Saturday.

If we put that map on now, we can see thunderstorms forecast for large parts of Australia. Anywhere shaded could see storms today, and the brighter colours, the yellows and reds, mark the areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. There is a region northwest of Uluru across the Western Australia and Northern Territory border, but many more people could be affected by severe storms along the eastern side of the country.

Zooming into the east coast, in Queensland the risk covers the Central Tablelands down to the south-east coast and up into the Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Across the border into northern New South Wales the risk extends from the coast to the western slopes and plains, then southward along the Great Dividing Range, including some coastal areas, all the way to the Victorian border and into eastern Victoria.

The yellow regions indicate where damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall or large hailstones are possible later today once storms strengthen. The red region is where severe thunderstorms are most likely and where the most significant impacts may occur, including giant hail five centimetres or larger and destructive winds of 120 kilometres an hour or higher. This high-impact zone stretches from western parts of Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast into the hinterland, across Toowoomba and the Darling Downs, then down the southern border ranges into the north-western slopes of New South Wales.

Moving into Sunday, a band of wet and stormy weather will shift eastwards, crossing parts of the Queensland coast and moving offshore from New South Wales during the day. Conditions brighten in some areas as the system passes, with another smaller pulse of rain moving into the far south later on.

The Sunday thunderstorm map looks similar overall, although the storm risk drops significantly across parts of New South Wales. Around Sydney and surrounding districts the chance of storms is much lower. However, from Port Macquarie northwards across the border into much of eastern and central Queensland, severe thunderstorms remain possible, as well as across large areas of northern Australia.

On both Saturday and Sunday, storms may bring significant impacts. Damage to cars and property from large or giant hail is possible, as we have seen many times recently. Power outages, travel delays, and flash flooding are also possible. Flooding may close roads, affect properties, and cause some rivers to rise if heavy rain falls over catchments.

Looking ahead to Monday, most of the activity has cleared off the east coast. The severe storm risk for Queensland and New South Wales is largely a weekend event, with Saturday and Sunday the key days. Into next week conditions are clearer and calmer across this region, although the far north may continue to see severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, and parts of Western Australia could see some storms to begin the week.

Today is a good day to keep an eye on Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, which will be issued and updated as storms develop and move across the country. Keep up to date via the Bureau's website or the Bureau's app.

Thanks very much for watching and stay safe.