Across the United States, the number of people who do not have and do not want to have children is growing. While they are twice as likely to live in California as Louisiana, it is individual demographic characteristics that are the strongest predictor of who is childfree, according to a study published August 12, 2026 in the open access journal PLOS One by Zachary Neal and Jennifer Watling Neal from Michigan State University, US.
Individuals are considered childfree when they do not have children, and don't wish to have children in the future. According to the National Survey of Family Growth, the childfree portion of the population has grown from 13.8 percent of non-parents age 15-44 in 2002 to 29.4 percent in 2023. Little is known about where childfree populations are located, and whether state factors such as population, economics, public education or abortion laws play a role in where childfree people live. To address this knowledge gap, the authors of this study used data from the Civic Health and Institutions Project, analyzing results of an online survey of 20,118 US adults surveyed between 30 August and 8 October 2024.
The authors found that the estimated percent of childfree adults varied significantly by state. States with the highest childfree populations included California at 22 percent, Michigan at 19.9 percent, and New Hampshire at 19.4 percent. The states with the lowest childfree populations included North and South Dakota at 10.0 percent, and Louisiana at 9.4 percent. However, while prevalence varied significantly, there was no evidence that it clustered in regions such as the northeast or southwest. Being childfree was more common in highly populous states that also had a high cost of living, but individual demographic characteristics, such as being single, older, and male were better predictors of being childfree.
While the dataset only allows for state level resolution, the authors conclude that individual characteristics are more important than state characteristics in predicting whether someone will remain childfree, and that the effectiveness of state policies to encourage population growth are likely to be limited.
The authors add: "There is substantial variation in where childfree people — people who do not have and do not want children — live in the United States. We've found that one-in-five people are childfree in California and Michigan, but only one-in-ten are childfree in Louisiana and the Dakotas."
In your coverage, please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS One: https://plos.io/44W5kvq
Citation: Neal ZP, Neal JW (2026) The spatial distribution of the U.S. childfree population: Does state context matter? PLoS One 21(8): e0352872. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0352872
Author countries: US.
Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.
