Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, nations have had three attempts to hit the mark with their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): their initial pledges, updates in 2020 and this years round of new pledges ahead of COP30 in Belm, Brazil.
Each time, countries have collectively landed off target; each time, they have left the world on course for an intensification of the climate crisis.
UNEPs Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that only about a third of Parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted new NDCs by 30 September 2025. While the new NDCs show some progress and narrow the emissions gap in 2035, these new pledges are still not strong enough.
Global warming projections over this century are now 2.3-2.5C compared to 2.6-2.8C in last years report far from the Paris Agreements 1.5C and well-below 2C targets. And we must note, methodological updates account for 0.1C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel out another 0.1C. The NDCs themselves have made a marginal difference.
As a result, we still need unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions now in an ever-compressing timeframe and amid a challenging geopolitical context. And let us not forget that the world is not even on track to meet 2030 pledges. Policies currently in place are pointing the world towards up to 2.8C of warming.
This situation means we must accept a hard truth: the multi-decadal average of global temperatures will exceed 1.5C, very likely within the next decade. The task is to make this overshoot minimal and temporary.
To get on a path to limit overshoot to about 0.3C we would need to cut 2030 emissions by 26 per cent and 2035 emissions by 46 per cent. And we would have to deploy uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal methods to return to 1.5C by the end of the century. This will be very difficult, but we have no option to try. Because the cost of inaction is far greater.
Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the climate impacts that are harming all nations and limits the risks of irreversible climate tipping points. Just as importantly, minimizing overshoot reduces reliance on carbon dioxide removal.
We should not and cannot despair. To the contrary, we must become even more determined. The mitigation potential in wind, solar and forestry remains sufficient to bridge the 2C gap in 2035. For the first time, renewable energy sources surpassed coal as the world's largest source of electricity in the first half of 2025. As renewable costs continue to plummet, we have with the right policies the chance for this to become the new norm. And, as UNEP data shows, action is growing to tackle short-lived climate pollutants like methane, which can bring temperatures down quickly.
Action like this can help us pull the climate handbrake quickly. This report shows us we must. And we cannot forget, this action will deliver stronger economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience. A future every government should be working towards.
Now is the time for all countries, particularly G20 members, to go all in and invest in their future so we can finally start hitting the right climate targets.
