UNSW experts welcome the release of the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), while calling for urgent action to close knowledge gaps and build national resilience.
"The NCRA is a confronting but necessary first step to laying bare the extraordinary difference that even fractions of a degree of warming will make to our future," says Ben Newell, Director of the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response (ICRR) and a Professor in the UNSW School of Psychology.
"It also points to an opportunity: acknowledging the reality of future climate risk can be the impetus for a positive social tipping point in how we live our lives and adapt to our future climate."
Dr Tanya Fiedler, a climate risk accounting expert, and Scientia Fellow at the ICRR and UNSW Business School, reiterated the value of the NCRA while also highlighting its limitations.
"The NCRA and its accompanying datasets offer a strong starting point for organisations seeking to understand their climate risk," she says.
"However, the assessment cannot fully capture the dynamic, interconnected nature of climate systems, economies, and society - nor can it assess vulnerabilities at the level of individual assets, operations, or supply chains.
"Organisations, particularly those preparing for mandatory climate-related financial disclosures, must undertake their own in-depth analyses and build internal capacity to ensure their risk assessments are robust, adaptive, and responsive to a rapidly changing climate."
"The NCRA overview strikes me as a robust synthesis of current knowledge," says climate scientist Professor Andy Pitman, an ICRR Chief Investigator and Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
"However, the contrast in confidence levels is striking: while fire, temperature, sea level rise, ocean warming, and acidification are assessed with very high confidence, riverine flooding, tropical cyclones, storms, and droughts are rated with only low to medium confidence.
"This disparity is not inevitable - it reflects a lack of a coordinated national research strategy in these areas.
"Building on this report's excellent foundation, the next logical question is: What is the national research strategy to close these gaps? How can we better integrate existing research capabilities, and how do we make the case to government that investing in uncertainty reduction directly enhances the precision and effectiveness of adaptation efforts?"
Prof Newell adds that the report underscores the need for educators to develop curricula that integrate climate science, decision theory, and risk communication to prepare the next generation to respond effectively to complex climate risks.
"We have never needed cross-disciplinary approaches more, or professionals who can navigate the interconnected nature of climate-related crises.
"As extreme events compound, decisions must often be made rapidly and under significant uncertainty.
"Our education should go beyond technical modelling skills to include training that helps future leaders recognise and reduce cognitive biases, especially when working under stress."
