Weekend Storms Threaten South and East

Now it is a quasi-long weekend for Melburnians, many of whom will get out and about across regional Victoria for that four-day long weekend ahead of Cup Day on Tuesday. Storms are possible on the weekend for Melbourne, Canberra as well on Saturday afternoon, and then Sydney Saturday, Saturday evening and Brisbane on Sunday.

Now I mentioned wind is more of the main risk here, so falling tree branches with damaging winds are possible not just in thunderstorms but with a windy day widespread across much of Victoria and also parts of Tasmania on Saturday.

So let's take a look at what this weather system looks like at the moment on Friday. We've got two areas of focus here through central and western Queensland. Plenty of wet weather, plenty of thunderstorms around up there again today and through South Australia.

See this trough system coming through here, that's going to bring showers and storms to South Australia as well. Now here's what the thunderstorm forecast looks like for Friday. We can see severe thunderstorms possible in the yellow area through the Eyre and the North-West Pastoral in South Australia, so damaging winds are the main risk there. Some large hail is possible too, and thunderstorms reaching Adelaide later on Friday afternoon or into the evening hours.

Severe thunderstorms also on the forecast up through central and western Queensland, particularly around Longreach and the Central West, so the trifecta is possible in these areas, large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in those areas which have already seen a few thunderstorms over the last couple of weeks. So the rivers and creeks will respond quickly to further rainfall today.

Looking ahead to Saturday, we'll focus in on the south-east here as the trough system brings showers and thunderstorms to Victoria and parts of Tasmania early on Saturday morning, and then thunderstorms focusing along this trough line on Saturday afternoon, including over Melbourne where the trough moves through around lunchtime, early afternoon, so thunderstorms in the early afternoon for Melbourne and then clearing out quite quickly after that.

So after 3 or 4:00 pm, Melbourne should be fine and mostly sunny. It's also going to be a windy day across Victoria, as I mentioned, plenty of strong northerly winds ahead of that trough there.

So we've got a Severe Weather Warning current in the yellow area here for the Alps, the Victorian Alps and also into the New South Wales Alps as well.

So if you're getting out and about into regional Victoria, particularly through Gippsland and the Alps, where it is going to be particularly windy on Saturday, do take care at campsites around trees, next to rivers, where you're out in the open.

Now let's see what happens for the rest of Saturday. We'll see the focus shift to Canberra late afternoon, early evening on Saturday, western New South Wales as well, and then Sydney could see a thunderstorm in the afternoon, but more likely to see something after dark.

So if you're getting out and about with the kids on Saturday evening for Halloween in Melbourne, you're sweet, the weather's all clear by then. Canberra, take care because there could be showers and thunderstorms around, and Sydney, keep an eye on the latest warnings and radars because there could be showers or thunderstorms around, more likely later into the evening.

So here's what the thunderstorm map looks like for Saturday, then, we can see that large yellow area, severe thunderstorms possible from Melbourne and Gippsland, right up through western New South Wales and into southern Queensland as well.

Now for Melbourne, the main risk is damaging winds with those storms, which will be quite fast-moving. But as you head further north, you will see the risk of large hail and heavy rainfall, as well as the damaging winds as well.

Let's look ahead to Sunday now. And just like the system last weekend, the focus shifts further north.

So the focus on Sunday will be around northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, with showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, further north there. And what does that look like on the thunderstorm map?

Well, you can see that large yellow area where the focus is, including Toowoomba and the Darling Downs, down through Tamworth, Armidale, New England and particularly down the Mid North Coast for Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour, where severe thunderstorms are likely on Sunday afternoon.

Now that's the weekend, we'll look ahead quickly at the first couple of days of next week. Unfortunately, the long weekend continues to be wet for Melburnians, who are hoping to get out and about around Victoria.

With this low-pressure system bringing more showers and probably thunderstorms as well during Monday, clearing out Tuesday, and then on Tuesday afternoon the focus again moves to south-east Queensland.

Now Tuesday shapes up as potentially a significant thunderstorm outbreak for south-east Queensland. We'll have much more to say about that next week as the forecast firms up for Tuesday afternoon in Brisbane and surrounds.

That's all we've got for now. Have a great weekend, stay safe. You can always find the latest forecast and warnings on our website, on our app and on our social media channels. Thanks for watching, we'll see you next time.