Consumers are surrounded by food that is highly conducive to weight gain. No one likes dieting and very few have lasting success. But now weight-loss injections are seen as gamechangers, yielding results that seem miraculous for people who have struggled with their weight.
Author
- Yasemin Kor
Beckwith Professor of Management Studies, Cambridge Judge Business School
Around the world, obesity , high blood pressure, and abnormal blood sugar and lipid levels (so-called "metabolic syndrome" ) have now been shown to affect 31% of women and 26% of men. The same study estimated that globally 1.54 billion adults had metabolic syndrome in 2023.
The new genre of weight loss injections (GLP-1 agonists) have been shown to reduce weight by 16-23% in roughly one year. These drugs are expensive, but some healthcare programmes cover the cost for those who need them the most.
In the UK, they are covered by the NHS for patients who are both severely obese and also suffer from specific weight-related health problems such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Some who can afford to pay may be able to get a prescription with less-pressing health conditions.
In the meantime, prices of the drugs are starting to come down thanks to commercial competition and patents expiring . And a more convenient pill form is now available in the US and likely to become available in some other markets in the near future, meaning the overall uptake of these drugs could grow exponentially.
This might all seem like bad news for the food industry. After all, the people who are taking these drugs, often for at least a year, have significantly reduced appetite. This will amount to a sizeable drop in demand for food products. So it's interesting to consider how the food industry might react to this - with an aggressive response that revamps food product lines to promote better nutrition and health? Or with a wait-and-see approach to determine the long-term future of the drugs?
People taking weight-loss drugs still need to get enough protein, fibre and other nutrients to prevent muscle loss and to keep their digestive systems functioning. It takes tricky calculations and consistent planning to figure out how to obtain all essential nutrients in small plates day after day. This can be a new business opportunity for food companies.
Companies in the sector have introduced product lines with meals designed specifically for those on weight-loss medications - M&S (Nutrient Dense), Morrisons (Small & Balanced) and Nestle (Vital Pursuit). There are also smaller entrepreneurial companies in the mix - BistroMD, Field Doctor, Jane Plan and MealPro, for example. These specialise in meal preparation and delivery based on customers' needs (for example, GLP-1-optimised, heart-healthy or diabetes-friendly) or taste preferences.
Others will no doubt follow - but companies like M&S and small specialised firms are the ones showing more agility and capability in this space right now.
The shadow of ultra-processed foods
However, beyond GLP-friendly ready meals, food companies must confront a major problem: they are a significant contributor to the global epidemic of metabolic syndrome due to their promotion of the ultra-processed and highly processed foods found everywhere - from supermarkets, to workplace cafeterias and food outlets.
It is not only consumers who rely on these products; food companies earn significant profits from them. GLP-1 drugs may help reduce consumers' dependence on such foods, but could they also encourage companies to adjust their product ranges and offer more space for healthier options on shelves and menus?
And even though recent research has shown that people who stop taking the drugs often gain back the weight they lost very rapidly, these drugs will not go away. They will most probably be carefully combined with other tools for effective long-term weight and metabolic syndrome management.
Customers can expect to spot more GLP-1-friendly food products in all supermarkets this year. But unfortunately, with some exceptions, it is unlikely that consumers will see a significant reduction in highly processed or ultra-processed foods - or a big increase in the amount of healthier food on sale.
Food companies are likely to continue generating revenue from less healthy products for as long as demand remains strong. That's the usual response of established firms that are disrupted by technology , competition and new business models . Most prefer to take a wait-and-see approach, keeping their bigger portfolio and overall business strategy intact, and plan to calibrate a response based on the perceived urgency and size of the threat.
But, in this case, that could be a big mistake. A tentative approach reinforces the already negative image of large food firms when it comes to public health. Introducing a limited range while failing to act on the damaging effects of their other product lines could further erode consumer trust.
It could also open the door to competition from pharmaceutical companies, technology startups, and speciality food firms that take alternative approaches to food and health. These could involve even more sophisticated prepared-meal options, supplements and customised meal kits. The wait-and-see approach, however, delays the development of new products and business strategy.
Ultimately, customer choices matter - and increasingly shoppers have more options. People with metabolic syndrome are more than likely to try weight-loss medications that may reverse their health problems. They are also likely to invest in approaches that will help them maintain their weight loss. Food and health companies that make it their mission to promote wellbeing are going to be tomorrow's winners.
Yasemin Kor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
