Alcohol pricing is often analysed using sophisticated computer models to understand how policy changes, such as adjustments to excise, might affect drinking behaviour and public health.
But the growth of no and low alcohol drinks that closely resemble well-known beer, wine and spirits products - "nolo" look-alikes - means alcohol companies themselves now provide useful real world points of comparison for alcohol pricing.
A natural pricing experiment
Nolo look-alikes use the same brand names, packaging and retail settings as their alcoholic counterparts, and at first glance it can be hard to spot the difference.
But they don't contain alcohol and don't attract alcohol excise.
This creates a rare situation in which closely matched products from the same company face very different tax and cost structures.
By comparing how these paired products are priced, it becomes clearer which elements of alcohol prices are linked to alcohol itself and which come from commercial pricing strategies.
What the comparison reveals
One place this lens is especially useful is volume pricing.
Alcoholic products often feature discounts for larger pack sizes or multi-buy promotions - something central to debates about alcohol affordability and harm.
Watching whether alcohol-free versions replicate, weaken, or abandon these discount structures provides direct insight into how volume pricing incentives are designed.
A second use can shed light on substitution between versions.
Alcoholic and non-alcoholic variants are often similarly priced, even though they face very different tax and cost structures.
Tracking how this price distance shifts over time and across markets - particularly where tax treatment differs - offers a view into how companies manage alcohol substitution within their portfolios.
Treating nolo look-alike products as a natural pricing comparator offers a structured way to analyse alcohol pricing using real world market data - one that can be extended across products, companies and countries.
About the author
Dr Cameron Shackell is an Adjunct Fellow at UQ's Centre for Policy Futures and specialises in pricing, incentives and signalling in regulated markets.
His analysis of this topic has been published as correspondence in The Lancet Public Health.
The Centre for Policy Futures has published a separate Policy Brief on related implications around the surveillance of no and low alcohol products.
