The September 2026 Resources and energy quarterly examines changes in the commodity outlook as the conflict in the Middle East impacts global supply chains.
The trade and production disruptions are lifting the price of energy commodities and thus input prices in global supply chains. Growing investment in AI infrastructure and the energy transition is also boosting demand for Australian resources. Export earnings are forecast to peak in the near term before easing later in the 5-year outlook period as energy and bulk commodity prices soften.
The September 2026 REQ forecasts resources and energy export earnings to rise to $422 billion in 2026-27, up from $403 billion in 2025-26 and then fall to $391 billion in 2027-28. Earnings are forecast to fall to $379 billion ($343 billion in real terms) in 2030-31 as commodity prices drift down.
Highlights from the September 2026 REQ:
- Prices are expected to normalise over the outlook period as disruptions to output and shipping ease and supply recovers. Energy commodity exports are expected to return to lower levels in the second part of the outlook period, driven by lower thermal coal, LNG and oil export prices.
- Gold export earnings are estimated to decline by 6% from almost $72 billion in 2025-26 to $68 billion in 2026-27, before falling to $61 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31. These moves are driven by lower gold prices and a modest appreciation of the AUD/USD exchange rate.
- Iron ore export earnings will continue to account for over 25% of all resource and energy commodities in the outlook period. With prices falling, export earnings are forecast to fall from $123 billion in 2025-26 to $107 billion in 2026-27 and $79 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31.
- Demand for copper is being driven by increasing electrification, expansion of electricity grids and AI-related data centre developments. Rising prices and higher export volumes are expected to see copper exports lift from $14 billion in 2025-26 to $19 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31.
- Alumina export earnings are forecast to rise from $7.2 billion in 2025-26 to $7.8 billion in 2030-31 (in real terms). Aluminium export earnings are forecast to ease from $6.8 billion to around $6 billion over the same period (in real terms).
- Thermal coal export earnings are forecast to fall from $31 billion in 2025-26 to $26 billion in 2027-28 and to $24 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31. Metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to fall from $39 billion in 2025-26to $38 billion in 2027-28 and $36 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31.
- Higher prices are forecast to push Australia's LNG export earnings up from $57 billion in 2025-26 to $70 billion in 2026-27. As Middle East supply and trade conditions normalise, export values are projected to decline to $42 billion (in real terms) by 2030-31.
- Oil export earnings are projected to drop slightly from $11 billion in 2025-26 to $10.4 in 2026-27, as falling volumes are largely offset by higher prices, before falling to $5.6 billion (in real terms) in 2030-31.
- Critical minerals export earnings are forecast to rise from around $17 billion in 2025-26 to $26 billion in 2026-27. These are expected to stabilise at $22 billion (in real terms) by 2030-31. Lithium exports will account for more than half of total critical minerals earnings, with manganese, mineral sands and rare earths contributing most of the remaining revenue.
