Strengthening the role of volcanology within the global early warning sphere
The workshop on "Advancing Volcanic Hazards in Early Warnings for All", held at WMO headquarters in Geneva from 7 to 9 July, made several key recommendations to strengthen the role of volcanology within the global early warning sphere. These recommendations are notable as volcanic hazards have historically received less systematic attention than hydrometeorological hazards, particularly within national disaster policies and international agendas.
Volcanic eruptions generate a complex spectrum of hazards. Primary phenomena such as pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, ashfall and toxic gases can devastate cities and rural communities. Secondary hazards - including lahars, tsunamis and wind-driven ash remobilization - can extend impacts far beyond the immediate eruption zone. These disruptions have cascading consequences for aviation, agriculture, health systems and critical infrastructure. In addition to local impacts, large explosive eruptions can influence the global climate by injecting sulfur dioxide and fine ash particles into the stratosphere.1 These aerosols reflect solar radiation, cooling the Earth's surface for months or even years. However, monitoring infrastructure for volcanic activity remains fragile in many regions, especially in Small-Island Developing States and least-developed countries, where institutional mandates may be unclear and there is limited investment in risk knowledge.
Yet the workshop highlighted many cases where scientific-government-community partnerships have saved lives. One critical contributor to this progress is the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO), a global network under the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly, which promotes information exchange, peer support and technical cooperation among observatories.
During the workshop, 100 scientific experts from the United Nations (UN) system, international organizations, regional disaster authorities and civil society reviewed the challenges and emerging opportunities for integrating volcanic hazards into the four pillars of the Early Warnings for All initiative:
- Pillar 1: Risk Knowledge - Significant advances are underway, such as the expansion of global databases like WOVOdat, enhanced retrospective analyses of historic eruptions, and improved hazard assessments. However, many volcanoes remain poorly characterized, either because of limited field access, insufficient instrumentation or lack of updated studies. The workshop underscored the value of (i) Artificial Intelligence (AI) assisted hazard and risk modelling, (ii) systematic data collection across observatories and (iii) co-production of knowledge with communities living near active volcanoes.
- Pillar 2: Monitoring and Forecasting - Integration of volcano monitoring into meteorological frameworks is progressing, supported by multiparameter tools that combine seismic, geodetic, thermal and gas emission measurements. However, coverage is uneven. Many observatories face equipment losses, resource constraints and turnovers among skilled staff. Participants emphasized the need for regional cooperation, shared information platforms, expanded Earth observation data use, and innovations in real-time AI-enhanced forecasting.
- Pillar 3: Warning Dissemination - Rapid outreach is increasingly possible through mobile connectivity, standardized Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) approaches and layered public communication systems. But gaps persist - roughly one third of the world's population remains outside effective early warning reach. The effectiveness of warnings is also being undermined by fragmented mandates, the exclusion of vulnerable communities and a lack of trust. The workshop called for inclusive, multichannel dissemination strategies, ideally led by designated national authorities, with messaging that accounts for equity and local communication norms.
- Pillar 4: Preparedness and Response - Positive examples from Ecuador, the Philippines and St. Vincent and the Grenadines showed how predefined thresholds, anticipatory protocols and regular drills can improve outcomes. However, many regions experience persistent challenges due to insufficient resources, unclear legal responsibilities and the complexity of managing large-scale evacuations. Many communities also face socioeconomic barriers that impede resilience.
The workshop recommendations below aim to strengthen the role of volcanology within global early warning sphere:
- Enhance disaster risk knowledge through systematic hazard assessments, probabilistic modelling and stronger global databases
- Expand monitoring capacity, particularly for high-risk regions, leveraging multiparameter networks, Earth observation tools and equitable support for observatories
- Scale up inclusive warning dissemination by adopting the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) globally at volcano observatories, ensuring technical redundancy and reinforcing community trust through scenario-based messaging
- Embed volcanic hazards within multi-hazard frameworks by aligning volcanic science with meteorological, humanitarian and civil protection systems
- Promote anticipatory action and preparedness by integrating volcanic risk into national protocols and securing financing mechanisms
- Strengthen volcanology representation at the United Nations level to elevate visibility, policy support and funding across the Early Warnings for All initiative and implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).
The Geneva workshop marked a milestone in cross-sector collaboration. Volcanology experts reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Early Warnings for All road maps, to contributing to communities of practice on AI, CAP and GDACS (Global Disaster Awareness and Coordination System) , and to strengthening the coordination roles of IAVCEI and WOVO. Workshop participants encouraged the pillar leads of the Early Warnings for All initiative to structurally incorporate volcanic hazards into relevant frameworks, including WMO hazard classifications and national early warning roadmaps.
It will be essential to align scientific progress with global disaster risk governance and to embed volcanic hazards in comprehensive multi-hazard early warning systems. This will help to ensure that communities living under the shadow of volcanoes are no longer overlooked; and that lives, livelihoods and development gains are safeguarded worldwide.
The event was jointly organized by WMO and IAVCEI.
