Issued: 11:30am AEDT Monday, 10 October 2022
The Bureau of Meteorology has released its long-range forecast for Australia's coming severe weather season including an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows.
While severe weather can occur at any time of the year, October to April is the peak time for flooding, tropical cyclones, heatwaves, bushfires and severe thunderstorms.
The 2022-23 long-range forecast includes:
- An increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows
- An increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia
- Normal bushfire potential in eastern states, but an elevated risk of grass fire in southern Australia
- Increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas with higher humidity
- Normal risk of severe thunderstorms, but with possible increase in risk of thunderstorm asthma events if conditions are dry in late spring and early summer
The Bureau issued Australia's Tropical Cyclone Season long-range forecast on 10 October in advance of the 1 November to 30 April cyclone season.
This season we have a greater than 70 per cent chance of at least 11 tropical cyclones, which is the long-term average impacting the Australian region.
Communities are urged to prepare now as there is an increased chance that the first tropical cyclone in the Australian region is likely to be earlier in the season.
This reflects the impact of current climate influences including La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
Despite fewer tropical cyclones in recent years, Australia has never had a season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast, since records began in the early 1970s.
The Bureau closely monitors tropical weather systems and, where required, issues cyclone watches and warning advice.
It is important to know your weather and know your risk – so you're ready to act and stay safe.
Stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings on the Bureau's website or Bureau Weather app. To receive notifications through the app, visit the notifications setting menu to get the warning information you need when it matters most.
People travelling are encouraged to update your location and enable push notifications on the Bureau Weather app to receive warnings directly to your phone.
