A record-breaking El Niño winter and the potential loss or weakening of federal disaster management services are among the factors that could determine whether Californians face catastrophic floods this winter and beyond.
A report released today from the Securing California's Flood Future, or SCFF, panel outlines what California needs to consider for a durable and resilient flood future in the face of such disturbances.
"Whereas we will emerge from this El Niño next spring - wet or dry - the potential damage to U.S. flood-management and disaster-management institutions may take much longer to repair," said panel co-chair Nicholas Pinter, a professor with the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences and the Earth and Planetary Sciences department. "But political crises, like natural disasters themselves, open windows of opportunity for change. California possesses significant strengths on which to build."
Approximately 7 million people in California and $900 billion in infrastructure are at risk from flooding. For the past century, flood risk management in California has relied on a partnership among federal, state and local institutions. In early 2025, that partnership began to face increasing uncertainty as the federal government began rolling back critical services and programs, targeting the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and disaster management more broadly.
The SCFF panel formed in early 2025 to help California navigate federal turbulence surrounding flood risk. Their broad scoping report in September 2025 assessed various threat scenarios arising from rapid policy shifts in Washington, D.C., and their potential impacts on California.
Key recommendations
The new report includes actionable management and policy recommendations for California to consider in five key areas: flood risk mapping, land-use planning, insurance, hazard mitigation and emergency management. Their recommendations include:
- Build upon California's flood-risk mapping capabilities. Create a statewide flood-risk mapping system that can augment existing FEMA flood risk maps and operate independently of them, if needed. These maps should account for climate-driven flood risk, show a range of flood possibilities and draw on global flood-risk models and new measures of community vulnerability.
- Adopt higher state-based standards for new growth and housing to reduce exposure to California's floodplains. Invest in educational platforms to guide land-use planning. Promote infill development over urban sprawl.
- Protect, expand and invest in mitigation - one of the most effective and cost-efficient ways to reduce future disaster losses.
- Close California's flood-insurance gap and prepare for potential disruptions to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Flood insurance coverage in California remains low. Pursue measures that increase insurance uptake across the state, such as mandatory coverage, parametric microinsurance options, and a lower-limit flood insurance option incorporated into homeowner policies. Consider more ambitious approaches, including universal flood coverage.
- Prepare now for greater state responsibility for disasters. California should plan for greater financial and operational responsibility across preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation. California should strengthen interstate and intrastate mutual-aid agreements, potentially including a formal Western States Disaster Alliance to coordinate policy, technical expertise and resources across states.
From reactive to proactive
"Our recommendations are intended to help shift flood management from a reactive system that pays for losses after disasters occur toward a proactive system that reduces risk before disasters happen," said Pinter. "If pursued thoughtfully, these actions can strengthen California's resilience regardless of the future direction of FEMA, the NFIP or other federal programs, while providing a model for other states confronting similar challenges."
The panel's additional experts include co-chair Carolyn Kousky of nonprofit Insurance for Good; David Conrad from Association of State Floodplain Managers; Craig Fugate and Andy Neal, both retired from FEMA; Mark Ghilarducci, retired from California Office of Emergency Services; Anna Serra-Llobet of UC Berkeley and Nancy Watkins of Milliman, a risk-management consultancy.
The report was submitted to the California Department of Water Resources.
