This spring, Environment and Climate Change Canada will launch a groundbreaking hybrid weather forecasting model that combines the power of artificial intelligence (AI) with the strengths of traditional forecasting methods. Through this strategic use of AI, Canada is enhancing public safety, improving emergency readiness, and giving Canadians more time to act to high-impact weather.
The new hybrid model relies on AI to better predict future weather conditions, as well as relying on the traditional physics‑based model to bring in our knowledge of unique local factors like wind, temperature, and precipitation. In combination, they will improve the accuracy of weather forecasts. With this new tool, forecasters will have a stronger, more efficient computer system that will better assist them in providing reliable and accurate weather alerts and information to Canadians.
The new hybrid forecasting model will result in significant benefits for Canadians:
- Better performance: The hybrid model will improve the accuracy of forecasts at all time scales (short-term, medium-term, and long-range). For example, when using the new hybrid model, our six-day forecast will be as accurate as our five-day forecast is now, when using the traditional model. This achievement is particularly significant because previous improvements to forecasting were only possible after several years of research and development.
- Advance notice of major weather systems: Improvements in large-scale accuracy, which will translate into predictions of major systems (such as winter storms, heat waves, or atmospheric rivers) from 8 to over 24 hours earlier.
- More confidence: Improved accuracy for predicting when specific weather conditions are expected to start and for mapping the track that a storm will follow.
AI is rapidly reshaping weather prediction and climate projection. Canadians are experiencing record-breaking climate events-from wildfires to extreme heat waves to floods-across the country. As we adapt to a changing climate, continued development of innovative AI weather approaches will keep industries like agriculture, transportation, and other weather-dependent sectors safer.
Over the past year, Environment and Climate Change Canada scientists and meteorologists have been carrying out extensive testing on the hybrid model, running it in parallel with our traditional model to evaluate its performance for predicting weather conditions in Canada. They also used the hybrid model to see how it would predict past storms. Earlier detection of powerful storms strengthens early warnings and supports better preparedness for Canadians.
Environment and Climate Change Canada continuously improves its weather and environmental prediction models, including adopting emerging technologies such as AI. The Department will continue to rely on the expertise of meteorologists for accurate and reliable weather forecasting. Meteorologists' judgment is critical to interpret results and communicate to the public.
