Chances are you know the climate is changing and that means trouble. But what exactly is driving the climate crisis, how bad are things now and how much worse could they get? To answer those questions, we dive into the data in the eight graphs that follow, which all come from recent reports by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Humans are flooding the atmosphere with greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gases act like a blanket, trapping heat near the Earths surface, warming the planet and driving climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, countries have vowed to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases they produce. But save for a few blips, emissions have risen steadily since the 1850s, hitting a record high of nearly 58 billion tonnes in 2024.
Greenhouse gas emissions are causing the Earth to overheat
As greenhouse gasses pour into the atmosphere, the Earths average temperature is rising quickly. In 2024, the global surface temperature was 1.5C warmer than it was during the latter half of the 19th century. That continues a 100-year-long trend of increasing temperatures, with the most intense warming coming during the last two decades. This heating is destabilizing Earths delicate climate systems, leading to what researchers say is a surge in floods, heatwaves, wildfires and other extreme weather.
Global warming is changing the face of the planet
As the planet warms, landscapes and seascapes that had remained unchanged for millennia are transforming before our eyes. The Arctic is one prime example of that; the frozen ground that underpins much of the region is thawing. As this so-called permafrost warms, it releases stored carbon and methane into the atmosphere. Experts warn this could create a feedback loop that rapidly accelerates climate change.
The Earth could still get much, much hotter
It is impossible to say exactly how much warmer the Earth will get and how bad climate change will ultimately become. This depends largely on whether countries live up to their promises to reduce emissions under the Paris Agreement.
But UNEP experts have mapped out some possible scenarios. If countries stay on the same path they are on now, the Earth could warm between 2.5C and 4.6C degrees within this century. If nations make good on all their climate-related pledges, the planet could warm between 2.1C and 2.9C. Those temperature rises could be calamitous.
As temperatures rise, the world may cross some potentially disastrous tipping points
As temperatures rise, so do the chances of irreversible changes to the Earth. If the world warms by 2C, it is very likely that nearly every warm-water coral will die, devastating the reefs that underpin coastal ecosystems. If temperatures rise by 3C, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets would most probably collapse, causing sea levels to rise, swamping coastlines. At 4C of warming, the Amazon rainforest could devolve into a savannah, depriving the planet of a key source of oxygen and unleashing a massive amount of stored carbon, making the climate crisis even worse. At the current pace of warming, several tipping points are expected to be passed this century.
Climate change could prove ruinous to the global economy
Along with being devastating for plants, animals and other living things, climate change could reduce the worlds gross domestic product by a staggering 22 per cent by 2100 (the black line). At that rate, $US133 trillion in wealth would be disappearing every year.
Nations have precious little money with which to cope with climate change
Climate change is threatening the lives and livelihoods of people around the world, especially those in developing countries. Those nations are estimated to need US$310 billion to US$365 billion a year to adapt to this crisis. Right now, they have access to about one-tenth of that.
There are some signs of hope in the battle against climate change
While greenhouse gas emissions are rising globally, they are falling or expected to fall in many nations, including Australia, China, the European Union, Japan and the Republic of Korea. There are hopes that as nations improve energy efficiency and move away from fossil fuels, emissions could drop even more. But experts warn that the pace of change must speed up dramatically.
The charts above are drawn from three UNEP publications: The Adaptation Gap Report 2025, The Emissions Gap Report 2025 and the Seventh Edition of the Global Environment Outlook.
About World Environment Day
World Environment Day, celebrated annually on 5 June, is one of the planet's largest platforms for environmental outreach and is led by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This year's iteration, hosted by Azerbaijan, will focus on the mushrooming climate crisis. See how you can get involved.
