By 2050, nearly 20% of the areas currently suitable for cocoa cultivation in Colombia could lose the climate conditions needed for production, particularly in the lowlands of the Caribbean region and the country's northeastern departments, according to a new scientific study.
The research was conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Fedecacao, and AGROSAVIA. The study combines future climate projections with data on current cocoa-growing areas and the distribution of its wild relatives to estimate how production conditions could change over the next 25 years.
The models indicate that the greatest losses in suitability would be concentrated in low-lying areas in the departments of Atlántico, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, Sucre, and Antioquia, as well as in the northeastern departments of Arauca, Casanare, Meta, and Vichada. Rising temperatures and more intense or erratic rainfall could result in lower yields, increased crop stress, and greater economic uncertainty for cocoa-growing families.
"Recent events, such as the cold wave with global implications that affected northern Colombia and caused major flooding in lowland areas of the Caribbean region and other Andean zones, show how climate change and climate variability are already generating real impacts," said Carlos Eduardo González, researcher at AGROSAVIA and one of the study's lead authors.
However, the outlook is not uniform. The foothills of the Andes—where most of the country's cocoa production is currently concentrated—would maintain favorable climate conditions. In addition, the study projects an expansion of approximately 3% in suitable areas, mainly at higher elevations, suggesting a potential geographical shift in cocoa cultivation in response to climate change. These findings provide key inputs for land-use planning and the design of differentiated strategies based on climate, elevation, and environmental conditions.
"This means that cocoa in Colombia will not disappear, but will likely undergo a gradual process of geographic redistribution," González added.
Wild cocoa: A strategic advantage for adaptation
One of the study's most significant findings is that wild cocoa could expand into new areas where conditions become favorable if projected temperature and rainfall trends continue toward 2050.
"Wild cocoa has an advantage that cultivated cocoa does not: it has evolved for thousands of years under extreme climate conditions. Populations that currently grow in very hot, very dry, or very wet areas are precisely those of greatest interest to us, because they may contain genes that allow us to develop varieties more resilient to future climate changes," explained Tobias Fremout of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, who also participated in the study.
This finding underscores the importance of conserving native lowland forests where these populations occur, as they represent a valuable source of genetic diversity for breeding materials that are more tolerant to climate stress.
Scientific basis for policy and adaptation
The results highlight the importance of forward-looking, science-based land-use planning and concrete adaptation measures. The establishment of agroforestry systems—where cocoa is grown under the shade of other trees—helps moderate temperatures and conserve soil moisture. In areas expected to face more frequent drought periods, supplemental irrigation could be key to stabilizing production. These measures can be complemented by production diversification and the use of more resilient genetic materials.
In this context, access to reliable climate information will help support producers and guide decision-making alongside institutions such as the Ministerio de Agricultura, UPRA, and Fedecacao, to reduce risks and ensure the sustainability of Colombian cocoa in the coming decades.
The study's findings will be integrated into the platform www.cacaodiversity.org to guide the best adaptation options for cocoa cultivation at the farm level.
The study was published in the scientific journal Regional Environmental Change .
