Confidence Hits Three-year High

ANZ Bank

• Consumer confidence rose 3.9 points last week to 90.6 points. The four-week moving average lifted 0.5 points to 87.5 points.

• 'Weekly inflation expectations' increased 0.3 of a percentage pint to 5.2 per cent, while the four-week moving average ticked up 0.1 of a percentage point to 4.9 per cent.

• 'Current financial conditions' (over the last year) was up 6.8 points, while 'future financial conditions' (next 12 months) jumped 7.9 points.

• 'Short-term economic confidence' (next 12 months) gained 1.1 points, and 'medium-term economic confidence' (next five years) rose 1.5 points.

• The 'time to buy a major household item' subindex lifted 2.2 points

"For the first time since May 2022, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is above 90 points. The series rose 3.9 points last week to 90.6 points, supported by a lift across all the subindices," said ANZ Economist Sophia Angala.

"Confidence in future household finances rose sharply after CPI data last week showed an easing in underlying inflation and raised the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in August. We expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points at its August meeting," she said.

"Despite the data suggesting a sustainable return of inflation to the midpoint of the RBA's 2-3 per cent target band, 'Weekly inflation expectations' rose last week. The US administration's announcement of modified reciprocal tariffs over the weekend of the survey period may have driven the move up, but on a four-week moving average basis inflation expectations have largely moved sideways over the past year."

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