Australia's current diesel shortage highlights a deeper issue in how we think about fuel security.
It is a global issue linked to the significant amount of fossil fuels coming from regions prone to conflict.
The issue is magnified in Australia due to decisions over the past couple of decades to shift refinery capacity offshore, which increases reliance on international capacity and supply chains.
This may be a more cost-effective method when all is running well but it's not as resilient when conflict, natural disasters or global pandemics disrupt global supply chains.
In the interest of buffering short term issues, the International Energy Agency recommendation to member countries is to maintain a 90-day reserve in country - like a savings account for hard times.
And like households deciding how much to keep in a rainy-day fund, governments weigh the risk of being caught short against the cost of maintaining fuel reserves.
Australia has typically been well below the recommended 90 days; closer to 30 days when this current conflict began.
While other experts may have better insights into why our reserves are low, it likely reflects a combination of cost, storage constraints, and confidence in support from allies and neighbours.
On the assumption that production had been scaled over the past decade in Australia, with highly supportive policy and subsidies similar to countries that have biofuel production, even a 20 percent blend of biofuel with fossil fuels would reduce the total volume of fossil fuel required to meet market demand.
This assumes infrastructure and capacity within Australia to blend and distribute the fuel, which means it cannot just be suddenly turned on when a crisis hits - it has to be deliberately built over time.
Essentially, the value of biofuels isn't just about reducing emissions; it's also about improving Australia's fuel security and supporting regional economies.
Our economy is deeply, fundamentally reliant on energy. Virtually all economic activity relies on access to some form of energy, and most - at some level - still rely on liquid fuels for mobile equipment and transport.
Biofuels are blended in many areas of the world today, and there are examples of airplanes, ships, and heavy trucks operating (in trials) on 100 percent biofuels.
Of course, there is work to be done to gain full confidence in the long-term, increased use of biofuels, and minor adjustments may be needed to ensure reliability, safety, and durability.
The reality is that scaling up through higher blending percentages will take years to sustainably produce more biofuel, while the technologies that use fuel can evolve alongside this growth and improve efficiency to reduce overall demand for liquid fuels.
The barriers exist both upstream and downstream of the biofuel production technology.
This is not to say the technology cannot be improved, but most enhancements and efficiencies are achieved through operating at commercial scale.
It's only in recent years that Australia has seen positive and supportive signals in policy and government investment.
The uncertainty created by previous inconsistency has delayed investment, along with the development of upstream supply chains and downstream markets.
Biofuels have relatively complicated supply chains, because they rely on diverse resources that are spread out and often subject to seasonal availability, so it needs to be carefully planned and managed to work effectively.
With global industries now openly committing to net zero, there is growing, reliable market demand/signals to support biofuel projects, secure offtake agreements, secure capital investment, and coordinate access to distribution infrastructure to bring the fuel to market.
Having good policy in place is essential if biofuels are to reach their full potential in Australia.
By 'good' policy, I mean straightforward, consistent, and predictable policy over time so that businesses, investors, and other stakeholders can plan and act with confidence.
This means all political parties should agree on the core framework, so that a change of government doesn't risk a complete reversal, with each new party only making minor adjustments to reflect its own priorities.
At a minimum, biofuels should compete on a level playing field with other energy sources.
Ideally, policy would also recognise and reward all their broader benefits - including sovereign fuel capacity, regional economic development, carbon reduction, and value-adding to forestry and agriculture.
In reality, unless there are very large subsidies, most existing food and fibre production will remain higher value when compared to biofuel markets.
Biofuels can still add economic value by making use of byproducts and residues.
Meeting sustainability requirements means that converting land from food or fibre production cannot be part of sustainable biofuel production, highlighting the need for strong sustainability standards, clear policy, and effective legislation.
Scaling sustainable biofuel supply will rely on high-quality science and strong research and development partnerships between the research community and industry.
As both a global challenge and opportunity, and with valuable experience and knowledge already existing in other countries, international collaboration through programs like IEA Bioenergy and Horizon can play a key role in accelerating these important developments.
Biofuels are particularly important because these sectors have no easy or economical alternatives to fossil fuels.
Electricity grids are transitioning to wind, solar, hydro, and battery storage, while the transportation sector is moving toward battery-based EVs.
Other renewable energy pathways cannot provide the energy density, storage, or safety required for aviation and shipping, making drop-in sustainable biofuels the best option for the foreseeable future.
This approach allows for a sensible "divide and conquer" strategy in renewable energy, with each solution playing to its strengths to meet growing energy demand, which will only increase with the rise of technologies like AI.
The key is making sure biomass is produced and sourced according to strong sustainability standards and clear legislation.
Stable, supportive policy and government investment - that accounts for environmental, economic, and security benefits over the short, medium, and long term - will decide whether Australia stays vulnerable or becomes more resilient to future fuel shocks.
Mark Brown is Chair of the IEA Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) and a Task Leader on sustainable biomass supply. He is Director of the Forest Research Institute at the University of the Sunshine Coast and Director of the Australian Forest and Wood Innovations Centre for Sustainable Futures . Through these roles, he and his affiliated organisations receive funding and industry support from the Australian Research Council, FWPA/AgriFutures, ACIAR, forest and wood products industries, and Australian state and Commonwealth governments.
