We can see this clearly on the radar. Earlier, we saw a bit of an eye feature, but notice where the yellow and orange rain is. That is where the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds are occurring. Earlier it was through eastern parts of the Tiwi Islands and around the Cape Hotham area, but now that is moving closer towards northern areas of Darwin and the southern parts of the Tiwi Islands. In the last half hour, winds have gusted to over 100 km/h at Gunn Point, around 86 km/h at Darwin Airport, and 80 km/h at Fannie Bay. These winds are only likely to increase further as we move into the coming hours, as these yellow areas and the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Fina scrape the coastal areas and far north-western parts of the Top End as we move through the late afternoon and evening before the system tracks into the Joseph Bonaparte area during the evening and overnight hours.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings are current for much of the north-west parts of the Top End and the entire Tiwi Islands. Cyclone Watches are also current from the NT and WA border across much of the northern Kimberley coast, as gales could develop there in the next 24 to 48 hours. For the next 6 to 12 hours, the main concern is the Tiwi Islands and the coastal and adjacent inland areas around Darwin and the north-west Top End. Damaging to locally destructive winds are likely as the cyclone passes to the north, along with widespread heavy rainfall that will lead to flash and riverine flooding.
Right now, the cyclone is a category 3 system, about 60 km to the north of Darwin, moving west-south-west at about 8 to 9 km/h. As we move through tonight and the early morning hours, the cyclone will continue to track away from Darwin, but as it does so, winds will shift from southerly to northerly as Darwin moves to the eastern side of the system. Winds will start to come in off the ocean, bringing stronger winds and a push of water. From a storm surge perspective, high tide is around 8 pm, but current guidance shows it is not expected to exceed the highest astronomical tide of the year, with the strongest onshore winds coming as the tide goes out. Even so, dangerous sea conditions are expected, and with creeks and rivers flowing out to sea, issues remain possible in addition to the heavy rain and damaging winds.
On Sunday the cyclone will begin to move further away, but could intensify into a category 4 system tomorrow afternoon as it moves over waters north of Western Australia. As we get into Monday it may remain offshore north of Western Australia, but residents and communities along the northern Kimberley coast will need to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings in the coming days.
Widespread heavy rainfall is already occurring. We are seeing 30 mm to 50 mm around the Darwin area with heavy falls on the Tiwi Islands, and an additional 100 mm to 200 mm is likely over the next 12 to 24 hours. Widespread damaging winds are also likely. The peak time for these winds will be from around 5 pm or 6 pm through until around 10 pm or later tonight, with damaging to locally destructive winds capable of bringing down trees and powerlines, causing power outages and possible property damage. It is not a good time to be outside and people should remain indoors. Heavy rainfall could also lead to flash and riverine flooding, causing some communities to be isolated, dangerous conditions on roads, and dangerous coastal conditions around high tide due to seas and swell.
Rainfall totals could easily reach another widespread 100 mm to 200 mm, with some coastal locations seeing even higher totals over the next 12 to 24 hours. The heavy rain threat will move to the northern Kimberley coast as we move into early next week.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is impacting the Darwin area and southern Tiwi Islands with widespread heavy rain, damaging to destructive winds, and high seas and swell on the high tide later tonight. Please stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via the website and app. You can also track the cyclone on radar. Track maps will be issued hourly through the night and into the early morning hours.
