Cyclone Narelle Advances Toward North QLD

It is currently a category two system and is intensifying as it moves westwards and towards the coast of Queensland. Ahead of landfall, we have issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch, and this covers communities between Weipa and Lockhart River in the north, and in the south between Kowanyama and across to Port Douglas. This also includes Cooktown as well as Coen. Within this watch zone, we are expecting to see gale force winds picking up within the next 24 to 48 hours, and because these are expected during Thursday, we are anticipating that this watch zone will be upgraded to a warning later on Wednesday.

And so having a look now at the latest track map, we can see Tropical Cyclone Narelle, currently a category two system around 1000 km to the north-east of Cairns. It will intensify further during Wednesday, and is expected to reach severe category three intensity by Wednesday night, and intensifying even further during Thursday to a severe category four system. The system could briefly reach severe category five intensity on Thursday night into Friday, but at this stage is expected to cross the coast as a severe category four system on Friday morning to the north of Cape Melville, around the Coen area. And the exact timing and intensity of landfall will change from track map update to track map update, so it is important that you have the latest information if you are within that watch zone.

So, what sorts of hazards are we expecting? Well, tropical cyclone categories relate only to their wind speed and wind speed strength. And so with a severe category four system, we could see wind gusts in excess of 250 km/h particularly around the centre of the cyclone, near crossing. Away from the centre, we could see wind gusts of up to 155 km/h. That applies for the entire watch zone area. Heavy to intense rainfall is also expected, and we could see those 24 hour rainfall totals between 100 mm and in excess of 350 mm and those high isolated falls are most likely near where the cyclone does cross. But we could also see heavy rainfall away from the watch zone. That includes for the northern tropical coast down towards Cairns and areas to the north of Townsville. And that's because the tropical cyclone is drawing in a lot of moisture and pushing strong easterly winds onto the northern tropical coast. Further, we could also see large waves and dangerous tides as the system draws closer, and this could cause inundation of low-lying areas, particularly as we head into Thursday night and also Friday morning. So, these are some of the hazards we can expect with Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

What sort of impacts can communities see? Well, a severe category four intensity cyclone can cause major damage. We are anticipating significant property damage, and that does include roofs being ripped off, damage to vehicles, as well as loose items becoming airborne. These sorts of wind speeds can also cause extensive vegetation damage, including trees being stripped of their leaves, and powerlines could also topple, leading to widespread power outages. So, it is important that you and your family make the necessary preparations ahead of landfall on Friday.

We are also expected to see flooding across northern Queensland, and over the last few weeks and months, northern Queensland has seen a lot of rainfall, so, catchments do remain very saturated. This means any additional rainfall could produce rapid flash flooding, as well as riverine flooding. So, for this reason, we have issued Flood Watches for the entire Cape York Peninsula, including the northern tropical coast, including Cairns, and down towards areas to the north of Townsville, which could see renewed flooding. We are also expecting to issue Flood Watches across the Top End, and this includes for communities that are already experiencing flooding, including Katherine and Daly River. So do keep across any Flood Watch updates as we head into the weekend if you are across the Top End.

And so once the system does cross the coast, what can we expect? Well, we can see here crossing the coast on Friday morning as a severe category four system. From there, it is expected to move further towards the west and across Cape York Peninsula, maintaining cyclone strength and re-intensifying over the Gulf of Carpentaria as we head into Saturday, and we could see a second landfall across the eastern part of the Top End on Saturday night as a severe category three system. From there, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken back into a tropical low over the Top End, but still bring very heavy rainfall right across the region. As we head into Monday, there's a little bit of uncertainty in some of the computer models, but at this stage it is expected to continue moving towards the west, and it could re-intensify back into a tropical cyclone and potentially looking at a third landfall across the Western Australian coast as we head into next week.

And so with that, we are also expecting to see heavy rainfall right across northern Australia. Rainfall totals up to Monday morning could exceed 100 mm for broad areas from the Kimberley, through the Top End and northern Queensland, but we can see here the highest rainfall totals will be very close to where the system does move over, but some of those higher rainfall totals in excess of 200-300 mm are possible for the Top End and around northern parts of Cape York Peninsula.

So, with Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to make its first landfall across northern Queensland on Friday it is important you have the latest information as we head into the weekend. You can get this on our website and app, follow us on social media and as always, please stay safe.