Much of the Midwest is experiencing drought due to very dry weather in the late summer and early fall. Half of the state of Illinois is in a severe drought, and portions of Central Illinois are in an extreme drought, affecting farmers' yields, particularly for soybeans. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign information sciences professor Dong Wang developed an artificial intelligence-driven drought estimation framework, called SIDE or Socially Informed Drought Estimation. The tool examines societal implications of drought beyond water availability or agricultural losses and how human behavior and environmental conditions influence one another. He talked with News Bureau arts and humanities editor Jodi Heckel.
What are some of the social implications of drought beyond water shortages?
When people hear the word "drought," they usually think about dry fields and empty reservoirs. However, drought affects much more than water - it touches nearly every part of daily life. It can hurt local economies, disrupt food production, harm mental health and even change how communities relate to one another.
For example, for farmers, drought means lower yields and income uncertainty. For small businesses tied to tourism, recreation or landscaping, it can mean months of lost revenue. We've also seen that prolonged drought brings stress and anxiety, especially in rural areas where livelihoods depend directly on the weather. Beyond that, drought can strain ecosystems, reduce water quality and spark conflicts over limited resources.
In short, drought doesn't just dry out the land - it also tests the resilience and wellbeing of communities.
How does the SIDE framework measure the societal impacts and human behavior associated with drought?
Traditional drought monitors track physical indicators such as rainfall, soil moisture and temperature. Those are essential, but they can't show how people actually are experiencing and responding to drought. That's where our SIDE framework comes in.
SIDE combines three kinds of information: 1) physical data such as weather and hydrological records; 2) social media posts, which capture personal experiences and public sentiment; and 3) news coverage, which reflects how drought is reported and discussed by journalists and local institutions.
Using artificial intelligence, SIDE brings these data sources together to estimate both drought severity and its societal impact. It organizes social and news discussions into key impact areas defined by the National Integrated Drought Information System - like agriculture, ecosystems, water utilities, recreation and public health.
By mapping these conversations over time, SIDE can detect where and when people begin to feel the effects of drought and how those social signals relate to changes in physical conditions. It helps connect the human side of the story to the environmental data in real time.
What issues do you see that are arising from the current Midwestern drought?
This year's drought in Illinois and the broader Midwest is a clear example of how fast conditions can change and how deeply communities are affected. After a relatively wet start to the year, soil moisture dropped sharply by late summer. According to the Illinois State Climatologist, 2025 has been the driest year since 1988 in parts of central Illinois, with shrinking rivers, dusty fields and even fire risks during harvest season.
Farmers are reporting uneven corn and soybean growth, low yields and tough harvest conditions as dry winds and brittle stalks complicate fieldwork. Local news has captured concerns about water shortages and the stress of unpredictable weather. Even recent rainfall hasn't been enough to reverse the dryness, leading to uncertainty about next year's planting.
From a social perspective, we expect an increase in local online discussions about water utilities, crop losses and mental fatigue - signs that people are not only observing the drought but also actively feeling its impact on their lives and livelihoods. These social signals often emerge before official drought reports can capture the full picture.
How can this information be useful in times of drought or other environmental crises?
By combining environmental data with social awareness, SIDE helps decision-makers see both the physical and human dimensions of a drought. That insight can help water managers, farmers and policymakers respond more quickly and effectively.
For instance, if SIDE detects rising public concern or stress in a certain area (e.g., even before water levels hit critical thresholds), it can alert local leaders to step up communication, provide resources or target drought assistance. Similarly, journalists and researchers can use this information to understand how people are adapting, coping and communicating during extreme weather.
Beyond droughts, SIDE can be adapted for floods, wildfires or heat waves, any situation where people's experiences offer vital real-time signals. The Wang team has been working on extending SIDE to other types of extreme events. The goal is to make environmental monitoring more human-centered, giving communities a clearer voice in how we understand and respond to crises.
