After a winter that was slightly drier than usual, the extremely dry spring is putting the Dutch water system under pressure. Groundwater levels have dropped significantly below the normal level for this time of year in many areas. The supply from the major rivers is also very low. Even if rain falls, it will take days to weeks before it penetrates deep enough into the soil. Long-term rainfall is needed for groundwater recovery.
While groundwater levels were still normal to above average in January, they have been declining ever since, particularly in the east and south of the Netherlands, where the drop in groundwater is notably fast. February, March, and early April were very dry. The supply from the major rivers remains far below normal: Rijkswaterstaat reported a Rhine discharge of only 1,150 m³/s in early April - less than half of what is typical, and the lowest discharge in 50 years for this period. According to the Drought Monitor by Rijkswaterstaat, the starting conditions for the dry season are less favorable than in previous years. The coming weeks are expected to remain dry in the Rhine and Meuse basins. Water reserves in Switzerland are lower than usual, with low reservoirs and little snow in the Alps.
Why is this a problem?
The consequences are widespread:
- Soils dry out quickly.
- Nature reserves suffer from drought stress.
- Farmers are already required to irrigate, although this is not allowed everywhere.
- Rivers, ditches, and ponds receive less water, leading to problems for flora and fauna.
Groundwater plays a key role here. Rivers and groundwater are closely connected. When river discharge drops, groundwater usually compensates for this. However, with low groundwater levels, this buffer disappears, leaving the water system vulnerable.
Particularly the shallow groundwater - the top meter - is of great importance. This groundwater performs functions that cannot easily be replaced by deeper groundwater or other water sources. It nourishes nature reserves, keeps soils moist, and supports crops. A decline can cause drought in vulnerable nature areas, lower agricultural yields, and less replenishment of surface water. During dry periods, most surface water even comes from groundwater. But when that declines, this source disappears, placing extra pressure on the water system. Additionally, the risk of salinization increases along the coast, where salty seawater displaces fresh groundwater - detrimental to agriculture and drinking water.
Water Boards take action
In North Brabant, several water boards have already imposed extraction bans for groundwater irrigation starting from April 1st, 2025. Bans on the extraction of surface water are also in effect in various areas to protect vulnerable nature and prevent further depletion of water reserves.
Will rain save us?
Unfortunately, no. Even if rain falls soon, the problem won't be immediately solved. Groundwater responds slowly to rainfall - and especially in sandy soils, where we are seeing the biggest problems, this is even slower. This is because rain in sandy soils quickly infiltrates the surface, but it then takes days to weeks to reach deep enough to replenish groundwater. Furthermore, groundwater in these areas is often already deeper by nature, which delays recovery.
Only prolonged, gentle rainfall can gradually replenish groundwater reserves. A short or heavy downpour hardly helps: the water then flows away through ditches and drains without having time to properly penetrate the soil.
Additionally, the Netherlands has been grappling with a structural water shortage for years. Dry springs are becoming more frequent, partly due to climate change. Evaporation begins earlier in the year due to higher temperatures and more sunshine, causing more moisture to evaporate from the soil and surface water. The growing season also starts earlier: plants grow sooner, absorb water faster, and evaporate more moisture. Since 1965, potential evaporation has increased by 20-30% (KNMI), which raises the chance of spring drought and brings the dry season forward.
Comparison to the Drought Year 2018
In 2018, the Netherlands experienced a historically dry summer, following a similarly dry spring. The situation in 2025 is better in terms of starting conditions due to the wet previous year, but the speed at which the rainfall deficit is now increasing is concerning. In some regions, such as the hill ridges in the center, east, and south of the country, groundwater levels are already comparable to May/June levels from previous years. Water boards are taking measures earlier than in 2018 - which offers hope.
What can we expect? Two scenarios
- Scenario 1: 60 mm of rain in May (average) → Water levels stabilize, and the topsoil temporarily recovers. In sandy soils, the effect on groundwater is limited; it mostly helps the surface. Structural deficits remain. Rain helps, but does not solve everything.
- Scenario 2: Another month of dryness → Groundwater levels continue to drop rapidly. Evaporation rises to 150 mm per month. Agriculture and nature suffer direct damage. New extraction bans are likely, and drinking water companies become extra cautious.
Conclusion
A single rain shower will not solve the problem. The top meters of groundwater are essential for nature, crops, soils, and rivers, and a drop in groundwater during drought can have significant consequences, especially if the system does not recover quickly enough. Long-term rainfall is needed for groundwater recovery, preferably in the fall and winter. Water boards are working on solutions such as holding water in nature reserves, smart land use, and artificial groundwater replenishment. While rain is welcome, it does not guarantee long-term solutions. Structural drought management requires a long-term vision - especially in a changing climate.
