The burgeoning East Coast broccoli industry is helping slightly lower costs and reduce reliance on the drought-prone West. Those were findings from a new supply chain model study that showed expanding production outside of California - the country's top broccoli producer - can help stabilize fresh produce supply chains that are vulnerable to water shortages.
At the same time, the study reveals, the East Coast broccoli industry must coordinate growing seasons, from south to north as the year progresses, to ensure a steady supply.
The paper, which published June 15 in the journal Agribusiness, used evidence from the growing U.S. broccoli market to analyze how fresh produce supply chains might be successfully reconfigured to alleviate disruptions from West Coast drought.
In the study, the East Coast broccoli industry offers a working example and prototype for moving production of other vegetables to limit drought risk and improve food security.
The model identified optimal locations for expanding the broccoli industry in 10 Eastern states and quantified how such expansion affects supply chain costs, market share and food miles.
"We do think our model can be generalized to other crops, which face similar issues and increasing challenges from drought and water scarcity when production is concentrated in one state," said Bingyan Dai, the paper's first author and a doctoral student in the lab of co-author Miguel Gómez, the Robin G. Tobin Professor of Food Marketing in the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economic and Management, housed in both the SC Johnson College of Business and the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.
Demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, and especially broccoli, most of which is grown in California, has been growing nationally while water scarcity in the West has also increased, Dai said.
"We wanted to show that the industry could still be competitive and shift production from California to different parts of the U.S., including the East Coast, in response to droughts because droughts affect shipments," Gómez said.
In 2010, Thomas Björkman, professor emeritus of horticulture at Cornell AgriTech, launched the East Coast Broccoli Project, which has built a $120 million industry. The project, which included Gómez as an original team member, required breeding new, locally adapted broccoli varieties that produce the uniform heads consumers expect; recruiting farmers; and organizing networks of growers, packers, distributors and retailers.
The supply chain model developed by Dai accounted for times when West Coast drought is serious and when it is moderate. In each circumstance, the model sought to minimize the total cost for the entire industry, with the East Coast market in mind.
"We considered shipments from California, Arizona, imports from Canada and Mexico and the East Coast," Dai said. "We considered all the sources to the East Coast and production and transportation costs and find the optimal locations for production."
The East Coast broccoli industry includes 10 states from Maine to Florida, each with its own growing season. The model revealed optimal growing locations based on the time of year. For example, broccoli is only produced in the winter in Florida and Georgia; by February, growing moves north to South Carolina, and then up the coast as the year progresses, ending with Maine and its short growing period and late-summer harvest.
"The beauty of broccoli in the East Coast is you can have a system so the region is able to supply product year-round," Gómez said.
The model also revealed that under severe drought, reallocating production from California to the East Coast reduces annual supply-chain costs by 1.5% and lowers transport distances in the Eastern market by around 20%, according to the paper.
While production from California and Texas will never be replaced, an eastern broccoli industry diversifies production sources and creates a more resilient fresh produce supply chain, Gomez said. "This is a way to minimize the risk and cost for everyone," Dai said.
Harry Kaiser, the Gellert Family Professor in Applied Economics and Management (Dyson School), is a co-author.
The study was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
