ECB Wage Tracker: Stable 2026 Wage Pressures

ECB

ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to the beginning of October 2025; forward-looking horizon extended to end-September 2026

Forward-looking information continues to indicate easing of negotiated wage growth

Preliminary data for first three quarters of 2026 suggest lower and more stable wage growth, with employee coverage remaining limited

The latest reading of the European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.7% in 2024 (based on a coverage of 50.6% of employees in participating countries) and 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 48.7%). The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. The downward trend in the forward-looking wage tracker component partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were made in 2024 but not in 2025) and the frontloaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates growth of 4.2% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025.

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