In the upper Abbay basin, cradle of the Blue Nile, a team of researchers have predicted soils of the future: what will happen to soil organic carbon if we bet on regenerative agriculture—returning residues, organic manure, cover crops, agroforestry? Their 50-year modelling unveils a mixed picture: yes, land can regain fertility and resilience if we feed soils more; but under warming and increasingly erratic rains, these benefits weaken and vary greatly across territories. A lesson in science and field realities, published on October 1, 2025, and authored by Wuletawu Abera, Amsalu Tilaye, Degefie Tibebe, and Assefa Abegaz.
Soil carbon: A hidden but decisive wealth
Imagine an invisible treasure lying beneath your feet. This treasure is called soil organic carbon. It retains water, feeds plants, makes the land softer and more resilient. For agropastoral families, this means fewer nasty surprises: fields that withstand a late rain, more stable yields, harvests that feed children even in difficult years.
But this capital is eroding. For decades, forests have been cleared, crop residues diverted to feed livestock or fuel stoves, and rains have stripped away fertile layers. As a result, soils have lost much of their initial carbon stock. And that is not all. Climate projections forecast a hotter (+2.2 °C by 2070) and drier future, which accelerates the decomposition of organic matter. In other words: soils lose faster than they recover.
Yet every kilo of carbon that remains in the ground counts twice: it limits global warming and boosts local productivity. It is easy to see why scientists insist: soil is a strategic lever, both for Ethiopia's climate policies and for the survival of farming households.
The dilemma is biomass. Every straw, every branch, every pile of manure is coveted. Should it feed animals, heat the home, or nourish the soil? These are daily trade-offs, made in smoky kitchens or at field edges, by families juggling immediate needs and uncertain futures.
Diving into the future with a "digital twin" of the soil
Measuring the breath of millions of plots is impossible. So scientists have created a virtual twin: a computer model called RothC. They fed it with data on soils, climates, crops, and simulated fifty years of change. Their method is precise: each "pixel" of the territory has its own trajectory, reflecting the basin's complex mosaic.
They tested eight scenarios. Four levels of farming practices: from business-as-usual up to +50% organic inputs (leaving residues in the field, more manure, cover crops, agroforestry). And two climates: the current one, and the hotter, drier one to come. This combination produced a vast tableau telling the future of soils year by year until 2070.
But these abstract figures translate into very concrete gestures: leaving more straw on the field, building a manure shed to avoid losses, sowing legumes that enrich the soil, planting hedges to curb erosion. Behind every option lies extra work—often shouldered by women—and collective decisions: who decides grazing? Who hauls manure? Who buys cover crop seeds?
The great lesson of this approach is clear: there is no one-size-fits-all solution. In the wetter west, soils can store large amounts of carbon. In the drier east, even ambitious efforts are not enough. This means science does not offer a magic recipe but rather a map: it shows where to invest heavily and where to adapt pragmatically.
Promises and limits: When climate reshuffles the cards
The results are both encouraging and alarming. Good news: if practices change, soils do store more carbon. In an unchanged climate, the gains are spectacular: up to 13 tonnes per hectare over fifty years in the most ambitious scenarios. Bad news: with warming and less rainfall, these gains are cut in half. In some cases, soils even start losing carbon.
Another finding: territorial inequalities widen. The basin's wetter west retains strong storage potential. The drier east sees its hopes dwindle, even with heroic efforts. This means some communities may turn carbon sequestration into income or an agricultural asset, while others must focus on adaptation just to survive.
Beyond maps and numbers, faces appear: those of farmers confronted with impossible trade-offs—using straw to keep a cow alive or to protect the soil from pounding rain? Burning wood to cook dinner or leaving it standing to enrich the land?
These choices reveal a strong political message: regenerative practices are not just a matter of technique. They require enabling conditions: energy alternatives to free up biomass, cooperatives to manage manure, carbon finance to offset labor costs. Without these, the most ambitious scenarios will remain on paper, far from field realities.
What next? A realistic roadmap
The study does not stop at diagnosis; it also proposes solutions. It invites action in stages. Start with what is feasible: secure part of the residues, better conserve manure, establish local grazing rules. These simple, community-driven steps already make a difference.
Then scale up with legumes, cover crops, agroforestry. But these efforts must not rest solely on women's shoulders. Reducing their workload, easing access to inputs, and recognizing their role in farming systems are essential conditions for a just transition.
Local authorities and technical services also play a key role. They must target territories: invest heavily where the potential is high, while helping elsewhere to safeguard fertility with adapted solutions. They must also regulate use: set goals for residue restitution, support manure storage, encourage energy alternatives.
Finally, donors and climate finance mechanisms are central. Without financial incentives, households cannot afford the risk. But if stored carbon tonnes are rewarded, if bonuses support efforts, then sequestration becomes a source of income, not just a burden.
In short, the message is clear: even though climate change complicates the task, Ethiopian soils can once again become a foundation of resilience. But this requires combining science, social organization, and financing. Soil carbon is not an abstraction: it is the key to a viable agricultural future for millions of families.
Read the full study "Modelling SOC dynamics on cropland under different regenerative agriculture practices and climate change scenario using RothC model in the Abbay basin of Ethiopia" , published on October 1, 2025 in Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, for detailed methodology, data, and actionable policy recommendations for stakeholders.
