Fire Danger High to Extreme in SE Australia

BOM
High to Extreme Fire Danger is forecast across south-eastern Australia tomorrow due to warm to hot and windy conditions. Let's take a look at the fire dangers over south-eastern Australia. Starting in South Australia, we can see High Fire Danger across most of the south of the state, but it is these orange areas we're expecting Extreme Fire Danger. That includes the West Coast, the Yorke Peninsula and the Mount Lofty Ranges.

Now remembering that the Mount Lofty Ranges takes in the Fleurieu Peninsula, where we saw a significant fire start last night. We also have some of these High Fire Danger areas that are very close to the threshold for Extreme Fire Danger, and that includes regions such as the Murraylands and the Upper South East. Over in Victoria, the Extreme Fire Danger is mostly through central parts, particularly the Central District, and this includes the Melbourne area and also the North Central District.

Once again, we also have some other districts that are very close to the threshold for Extreme, including the Wimmera and the West and South Gippsland District. And down in Tasmania at the moment, we currently have High Fire Danger across the state except for in the north-west. However, our latest modelling suggests that it could actually be even worse than this tomorrow, and we're now expecting High Fire Danger right across the state and reaching Extreme Fire Danger through the East Coast and the Midlands District.

Now, why are we seeing these High to Extreme Fire Danger? Well, we do have warm to hot conditions in Tasmania, high twenties, even some low thirties on the east coast. In Victoria, we're seeing temperatures in the thirties across much of the state, possibly even reaching the high thirties in the north. While in South Australia, we're seeing temperatures in the thirties or even the low forties across much of the state.

Now you notice we do have some cooler temperatures right along the coast. Now that's because we are expecting a wind change. And while that wind change will bring some cooler air later in the day, it will also increase the winds, and that contributes to the fire danger. So let's take a look at that change now. We see it's a double change, with this trough moving slowly across Victoria and also a cold front across the Southern Ocean approaching Tasmania.

By the time we get to the mid afternoon, we've got this trough over central Victoria and it's bringing some very strong winds around that trough. There's also the chance of some thunderstorms, particularly through West and South Gippsland, which you'll remember was very close to Extreme Fire Danger. So we're watching for the potential for new fire starts from lightning tomorrow.

In Tasmania with that approaching cold front, we're seeing strengthening north-westerly winds, particularly affecting the East Coast and the Midlands, where the Fire Danger is Extreme. While over South Australia, we don't have a sharp wind change, but we will see a strengthening of these southerly winds as we go through the afternoon, and that will increase the fire danger.

As we go through the evening, that front will cross Tasmania and the trough will move into north-eastern parts of Victoria. We will continue to see Extreme Fire Danger over north-eastern parts of Victoria into Thursday. Finally, let's take a look at the other side of the country. Over in Western Australia, this strong ridge to the south is directing south-easterly winds across most of the state.

Now in areas in the south where those winds are coming off the ocean, we do see some cooler temperatures. However, where they're coming off the land, we continue to see a lot of heat building, particularly over the Pilbara and the Gascoyne, where some of these purple areas are showing areas over 40 °C. So that is giving us some High to Extreme Fire Danger even in the west as well.

High Fire Danger right across the west of the state, reaching Extreme through some areas, including inland areas of Perth, where we have seen bushfires over the last week or so. So with lots of heat and wind and High to Extreme Fire Danger across south-eastern and Western Australia, it's going to be important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and the BOM weather app.

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