Global Food Commodity Production Sees Broad Increase

Current conditions point to broad-based increases in global food commodity production, alongside strong consumption growth and a recovery in inventories, although weather variability and a clouded trade outlook could pose risks, according to a new report published today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Global wheat and coarse grain outputs are on track to set new records, with the same applying to rice production in Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean region. Stocks-to-use ratios for these key staples are also forecast to rise, according to the new FAO Food Outlook.

The biannual publication provides updated market assessments and forecasts for the production, utilization, trade, and stocks of major food commodities including cereals, oilcrops, sugar, meat, dairy products, and fisheries. The new edition offers additional insights into olive oil, fertilizer markets, and the global food import bill.

"The rebound in global food production marks a positive turning point for market stability. But behind these numbers lie persistent risks, from extreme weather to fragile trade relations, that can quickly reshape global supply and access. Building resilience across the agrifood system remains our greatest challenge," said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.

Wheat, maize and rice markets are marked by abundant exportable supplies, which have exerted downward pressure on international prices. Meanwhile, utilizations of wheat and especially rice are expected to increase significantly, led by faster consumption growth in Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs).

Salient takeaways from the commodity analyses include:

--Global wheat inventories are expected to expand by 3.6 percent in the year ahead to reach their highest-ever level by the end of seasons in 2026, while world rice stocks are forecast to increase by 2.2 percent to a new record high.

--World meat production is expected to rise by 1.4 percent, led by poultry, while bovine meat output will likely contract due largely to reduced cattle inventories in Brazil and the United States of America.

--Global sugar stocks are anticipated to increase as bumper harvests in Brazil, along with strong outturns in India and Thailand, are foreseen to drive production up much faster than consumption.

--Global vegetable oil consumption, by contrast, is forecast to outpace production, influenced by reduced soybean outputs, resulting mainly from reduced planting areas in Argentina, India, Ukraine and the United States of America.

--Global fisheries and aquaculture production is forecast to increase by 1.7 percent, with expectations of a 2.5 percent increase in per capita food consumption of aquaculture products offsetting a decline in consumption from capture fisheries.

Special chapters on olive oil trends and fertilizermarkets

The FAO Food Outlook offers a detailed assessment of the olive oil market, predicting a recovery from recent drought conditions that curtailed output and drove up prices.-

Wholesale prices in Spain, the world's leading producer, and Greece have dropped by more than half since early 2024, although they remain at relatively high levels in Italy. Ample rainfall throughout the growing season in Tunisia points to a record-breaking production of more than 400 000 tonnes, which could make the country the world's second-largest olive oil producer in 2025/26.

Lower prices are underpinning a consumption recovery, and global trade in olive oil could hit a historical high in the season ahead, although tariffs in the United States of America may curb overall trade volumes.

In separate analysis, FAO finds that global fertilizer utilization rebounded in the 2024/25 season, following a period of reduced application due to reduced availability and affordability. The average price of a stylized fertilizer basket stood at USD 489 per tonne in September 2025, down 40 percent from the record peak of April 2022, although still higher than in 2024. Nitrogen fertilizer supply is expected to remain adequate in the short term, supported by China's return to global markets with increased export quotas for 2025 and 2026.

Food import bill

The Food Outlook also presents FAO's updated estimate for the global food import bill (FIB) in 2025, which is expected to rise by nearly 8 percent from the previous year to reach $2.22 trillion. ,

The increase in the global food import bill is driven largely by an average 34.5 percent jump in the prices of higher-value products, notably coffee and cocoa, primarily imported by high-income countries. In Least-Developed Countries, meanwhile, expenditures on animal and vegetable oils are estimated to rise by 58 percent compared to 2024, broadly split between quantity and price effects, with the latter particularly impacted by higher import prices for palm oil, raising concern of affordability.

By contrast, lower prices for cereals and sugar, are estimated to result in significant declines in the aggregate import bills for those commodities.

The combined food import bill for Low-Income Countries is expected to decline slightly compared to 2024, while that for sub-Saharan Africa should rise modestly.