European biodiversity policies call for protecting 30% of land and sea, hereof one-third (10%) as strictly protected by 2030, requiring countries to demonstrate genuine progress toward this 30/10 target. However, without rigorous assessment of protection effectivenes, reported figures risk substantially overestimating progress and undermining the overall aim of halting and reversing biodiversity loss.
The framework presented in the newly published article outlines a three-step process on how to identify areas that genuinely contribute to the EU 30/10 target: (1) identify areas with existing protection schemes that could potentially contribute to the 30/10 target; (2) exclude areas that compromise biodiversity, and (3) apply criteria for protected and strictly protected areas derived from European Commission's guidelines to assess which areas meets the criteria using an ecosystem approach, see figure 1.
Applying the science-based operational framework to Denmark using a geospatial analysis revealed that only 2% of land and 2% of sea genuinely contribute towards the 30% target, while the Danish authorities have reported contributions more than 7 to 15 times larger for land and sea, respectively.
The framework could strengthen conservation across the EU
The framework is applicable to other EU Member States and enables them to evaluate whether protected areas meet basic criteria for protection effectiveness.
"Researchers have pointed to the need for ensuring not only protected area quantity, but quality in area-based targets for years. The framework from Denmark here makes a proposal on which reported protected areas might count towards an implementation of the 30x30 biodiversity target. It is extremely timely as it helps to initiate a discussion on what effective conservation for biodiversity recovery would mean at national and pan-European level." says Martin Jung, senior research scholar and conservation scientist at Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
The framework operationalises the European Commission's guidelines for protected and strictly protected areas by deriving specific criteria and implementing a clear, transparent, and stepwise recipe using an ecosystem approach. This ensures that protection covers entire ecosystems rather than isolated species and habitat subsets, and it clarifies that Natura 2000 areas should not automatically be counted toward the 30% target. In Denmark more than one-third of Danish Natura 2000 areas includes land uses that compromise biodiversity.
"What I find particularly compelling about this framework is its insistence that areas only contribute to the 30% target if they protect the ecosystem as a whole. In particular, the study provides a strong case for why Natura 2000 areas should not be counted towards the 30x30 target by default, as indicated by the EU Commission's guidelines for protected and strictly protected areas," says Vigdis Vandvik professor of ecology at University of Bergen and Centre Director at Centre for Sustainable Area Management.
By offering an operational and science-based way to assess real protection, the framework helps ensure that reported conservation progress aligns with science-based knowledge on biodiversity outcomes. Its EU-wide applicability makes it an important tool for guiding countries toward genuinely meeting the 30 % target for protected areas.
Citation and background:
The stepwise and operational framework was developed by The Danish Biodiversity Council together with three researchers associated to the Biodiversity Council's secretariat. The authors of the peer reviewed article are Pedersen P.B.M, Petersen A.H., Corcoran D., Madsen N., Svenning J.C., Timmermann K., Kaae B.C., Kragh T., Olsen B.E., Strange N., Normand S., Rahbek C.
The peer-reviewed scientific article introduces an operational framework based on the approach and analyses in the following Biodiversity Council reports:
Biodiversitetsrådet (2022). Fra tab til fremgang - beskyttet natur i Danmark i et internationalt perspektiv.
Biodiversitetsrådet (2023). Mod robuste økosystemer – anbefalinger til en dansk lov om biodiversitet.
