Each year, the OECD's sprawling Education at a Glance report compares education systems across the developed world. And each year, New Zealand typically gets a pass mark.
Author
- Cristóbal Castro Barrientos
PhD Candidate, NZ Policy Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology
The 2026 edition is no different. About 44% of New Zealand adults aged 25-64 have a tertiary qualification - a diploma, degree or higher.
That's almost exactly the OECD average of 43%. Young graduates here also have a low unemployment rate - just 3%, compared with 5% across the OECD.
So, nothing to see here? Not quite. Those headline numbers hide a potentially troubling side of the story about the skills of young people growing up in New Zealand.
Aotearoa has one of the largest migrant populations in the developed world, relative to its size. More than a third of working-age adults were born overseas, the second-highest share in the OECD . Many arrived through skilled migration programmes, so tend to be well qualified.
When the Ministry of Education analysed the OECD's 2024 report , it found 51% of overseas-born adults held a tertiary qualification, compared with just 36% of those born here. That gap is one of the largest in the OECD.
In other words, New Zealand's "average" performance leans heavily on qualifications earned somewhere else. On their own, New Zealand-born adults would sit below the OECD average.
Skilled migration is a good thing. It fills gaps and brings expertise. But it can also mask a problem at home.
Fewer young people are studying
That problem shows up clearly in the new report. Between 2015 and 2025, the share of 18-24 year-olds in education fell by about five percentage points to around 37%. Across the OECD, it held steady or rose.
Many young New Zealanders are heading straight into work instead. The share of 18- to 24-year-olds working rather than studying rose from about 43% to 48% over the same period.
For much of the past decade, a strong job market made that an understandable choice. That has changed. Unemployment reached 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest since 2014, and among 20-24 year-olds it rose to 12% .
Young people are often hit hardest when the economy slows, which makes the case for helping them into study stronger, not weaker.
So, does a qualification still pay? Mostly, yes - but it depends which one. In New Zealand, 88% of tertiary-educated adults are in work, compared with 68% of people who didn't finish secondary school.
The pay boost is smaller than in many countries, though. Tertiary-educated workers here earn about 36% more than those who finished secondary school, while the OECD average is 54%.
My own research shows the type of qualification matters, too. A bachelor's degree is linked to earnings about 24% higher than secondary school, while a postgraduate qualification is about 34% higher. For lower-level certificates, the boost is close to zero.
Qualifications also open the door to more learning later in life. Tertiary-educated adults are about twice as likely to take part in further training. That will prove increasingly important as technology - especially artificial intelligence - transforms jobs .
The state is spending less
Meanwhile, government spending on tertiary education, including student support, fell from 1.7% of GDP in 2015 to 1.2% in 2023. That's a drop of more than a quarter, around three times the average decline across the OECD. Spending on schools held steady.
Part of the gap has been filled by student fees, including from international students. But this is an arguably shaky foundation , as the pandemic showed when international enrolments plunged.
So, what should happen? It's likely that cheaper fees alone won't solve the problem - and it's an approach New Zealand has already tried.
Other research has found little evidence the first-year fees-free scheme (since replaced ) encouraged more people to study or narrowed the gap between students from poorer and better-off schools.
That's because fees weren't really the barrier. Student loans already let people study without paying upfront . The bigger obstacles come earlier: how well students do at school, family circumstances, knowing what options are out there, and the lure of a pay packet.
The same goes for support that arrives after students have finished studying, such as reducing student debt. These may help graduates with living costs, but they're unlikely to change who enrols in the first place.
Increasingly, it appears the money should go where decisions actually get made.
That means lifting school achievement, especially in lower-decile schools and for Māori and Pacific students. It should also mean targeted help with living costs for students who need it, while focused on qualifications that pay off.
Having better data could show us how New Zealand-born young people are doing, rather than simply providing the national average.
Migration will always be part of how New Zealand gets the skills it needs. But it can't substitute for investing in the young people who grow up here.
Cristóbal Castro Barrientos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
