In 2022-2023, food prices in Sweden rose by 25 per cent. But it wasn't just households' wallets that were hit hard by the price increases - public health was too. Swedish consumers ate less dietary fibre, fruit and vegetables, according to a new report from Lund University.
"A 25 per cent increase is historically unique. The last time food prices rose so much was in the 1950s, and interestingly, war and uncertainty were behind it then too. Food rationing had been abolished and the Korean War led to imported goods becoming much more expensive," says Jonas Nordström, a researcher in economics at Lund University.
How prices changed our eating habits
The rise in food prices coincided with increases in interest rates and electricity prices. This meant that many households had to cut back significantly on their spending. The result? We bought more cheap food- in other words, more minced pork and soft drinks but less fresh fish and dairy products. Sales of fruit and vegetables fell by as much as 15 per cent.
But there was a small ray of hope.
"We bought less food overall, which meant we consumed less fat and salt. Therefore, the effects of eating less fruit and vegetables were not as serious as they could have been," says Jonas Nordström.
Northern Norrland hardest hit
In Västerbotten and Norrbotten counties, the negative impact on public health was twice as great as in Stockholm County. The reason was that the decline in fruit and vegetables hit harder there: people in northern Sweden did not reduce the amount of food they ate overall, as in the rest of the country - they simply replaced much of the green stuff on their plates.
The result was higher salt consumption and a relatively small reduction in fat intake. As the region already has a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease, the change was particularly critical.
"One year of dietary change does not make a big difference. But if this continues, it could have serious consequences for public health," says Jonas Nordström.
Stockholm County and Northern Norrland are two extremes in the study. People in Norrland changed the contents of their shopping baskets the least, while Stockholmers made the biggest adjustments. This applied not only to the volume of food purchased but also to the choice of goods. Among other things, households in Stockholm chose cheaper alternatives to a greater extent. One explanation for this is that there are more low-price stores in Stockholm and that the capital's shopping baskets were more expensive to begin with.
"It's not that difficult to reduce costs by replacing expensive goods with cheaper alternatives, for example by switching from organic milk to conventional milk," says Jonas Nordström.
Inequality grew
In 2022-2023, cheap food saw the biggest price increases. For example, minced meat rose in price by a higher percentage than expensive cuts such as fillet and sirloin.
The price of Swedish consumers' most common meal, spaghetti with minced meat sauce and a glass of milk, rose by a quarter. This phenomenon is called cheapflation and affects low-income households the hardest. Especially families with children who spend a large part of their budget on food.
"I also chose cheaper products, especially where I don't notice much difference, such as milk or yoghurt. I have children at home, so we have quite high food expenses," says Jonas Nordström.
Proposal for new food VAT
In November this year, the government proposed reducing VAT on food from 1 April 2026 to strengthen household finances. If the proposal goes ahead, Jonas Nordström emphasises that it is important that the price reductions and increased purchasing power are used to encourage Swedish consumers to eat more fruit and vegetables in the future.
"If retailers want to improve public health, they need to offer healthy products, not quantity discounts on unhealthy items," says Jonas Nordström.
About the study:
Jonas Nordström, together with his research colleagues Christian Jörgensen, Rebecca Swärd and Hampus Nylén at Lund University, has studied how rising food prices have affected retail food sales and consumer nutritional intake in 2022 and 2023.
The research was conducted at Agrifood, a research collaboration between Lund University and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
The study is based on sales data from shops, i.e. barcodes (known as EAN codes). The material includes data from Ica, Coop, Axfood, Citygross and Lidl.
Using the barcodes, the researchers have examined what we have bought and the nutritional content of the various goods.
To investigate the impact of the change in nutritional intake, the researchers used the PRIME model. This simulates the effects of changed eating habits, how the change in food intake affects health and whether the changed diet poses risks for cardiovascular disease, diabetes and diet-related cancers, for example.
The results are in line with previous research showing that when consumers' real income decreases, their intake of fruit and vegetables also decreases, while their consumption of sweets increases. The report Konsumtion i kristider - effekter av stigande livsmedelspriser is funded by the Swedish Trade Council and published in their report series.
https://handelsradet.se/app/uploads/2025/10/Rapport-2025_7.pdf
Two simple tips from researchers to retailers:
- Offer inexpensive fruit and vegetables in your shop. In this way, retailers can contribute to better public health.
- Promote fruit and vegetables in your shop. This can be done, for example, through recipes with lots of green ingredients.
