- Brazil's economy has grown strongly over the past three years, surprising on the upside. Inflation rebounded in 2024 amid strong demand, a rise in food prices, and currency depreciation, exceeding the target tolerance interval. IMF staff expects growth to moderate in the near term as inflation converges to target, and then strengthen to 2.5 percent over the medium term.
- The pivot to a monetary policy tightening cycle in September 2024 was appropriate and consistent with bringing inflation and inflation expectations back to the 3 percent target. In the context of heightened global policy uncertainty and inflation expectations above target-consistent levels, maintaining flexibility on the pace and length of the hiking cycle is prudent.
- The authorities' efforts to continue improving the fiscal position, while trying to meet social spending and investment needs, are welcome and further steps are warranted. Phasing out costly and inefficient tax expenditures, enhancing revenue administration, and tackling budget rigidities would open space for priority investments, support public debt sustainability, and facilitate a lower path of interest rates.
- The authorities are advancing their sustainable and inclusive growth agenda. Implementation of the landmark VAT reform is proceeding and a personal income tax reform that aims to enhance equity is under discussion in Congress.
Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Daniel Leigh, conducted discussions for the 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Brazilian authorities and consulted with other stakeholders during May 20 – June 2, 2025. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Leigh issued the following statement:
"Brazil's economy has grown strongly over the past three years, surprising on the upside. Staff projects a moderation in growth from 3.4 percent in 2024 to 2.3 percent in 2025, amid tight monetary and financial conditions, a scaling back of fiscal support, and heightened global policy uncertainty. Inflation is expected to reach 5.2 percent by end-2025, before gradually converging to the 3 percent target by end-2027. The external current account deficit reached 2.8 percent of GDP in 2024, on the back of strong exports and rising imports due to stronger economic activity.
"Over the medium term, growth is forecasted to recover to 2.5 percent, supported by the normalization of monetary policy and supportive structural factors, notably the implementation of the efficiency-enhancing VAT reform and the acceleration in hydrocarbon production. Additional structural reforms and implementation of the Ecological Transformation Plan would further boost medium-term growth prospects.
"Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside amid heightened global policy uncertainty. A sound financial system, adequate FX reserves, low reliance on FX debt, large government cash buffers, and a flexible exchange rate continue to support Brazil's resilience.
"The Central Bank of Brazil's (BCB) pivot to a tightening cycle in September 2024 was appropriate and consistent with bringing inflation and inflation expectations back to the 3 percent target. Above-target near- and medium-term inflation expectations, as well as a widening positive output gap, supported the case for the BCB's rate hikes. In the context of heightened global policy uncertainty and inflation expectations above target-consistent levels, maintaining flexibility on the pace and length of the hiking cycle is prudent.
"The authorities' efforts to continue improving the fiscal position, while trying to meet social spending and investment needs, are welcome and further steps are warranted. To put public debt on a firmly downward path, open space for priority investments, and facilitate a lower path of interest rates, staff recommends a sustained and more ambitious fiscal effort, supported by an enhanced fiscal framework, revenue mobilization, and spending measures. Implementation of the landmark 2023 VAT reform is expected to significantly simplify the tax system and boost productivity, and efforts rightly aim to secure revenue-neutrality.
"The financial sector was resilient in 2024 and is expected to remain so amid higher interest rates. The authorities are implementing regulatory changes aimed at further strengthening financial sector resilience. Reforms to facilitate a reduction in household leverage are needed. At present, public banks appear well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid, and have been paying dividends to the government. Lending by public banks should continue to focus on addressing market failures, such as supporting long-term investment.
"The BCB continues to advance its financial innovation agenda. Pix, the instant payment system developed by the BCB, now accounts for 49 percent of all electronic payments in Brazil—the most popular method, reflecting its low costs and immediate settlement. The pilot of Brazil's Central Bank Digital Currency, Drex, has entered the second phase, where additional use cases and integration with external platforms will be tested and enhanced, while continuing to explore data privacy solutions.
"The authorities are delivering on their inclusive and sustainable growth agenda. Structural reforms together with expanding hydrocarbon production have lifted Brazil's medium-term growth prospects. Additional structural reforms and implementation of the Ecological Transformation Plan would further foster productivity, investment, and job-rich growth, while extending recent gains in social inclusion. Brazil has made notable progress in reducing deforestation in recent years and is on track to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.
"The team would like to thank the authorities and private sector representatives for their support, hospitality, and constructive dialogue."
