In a study publishing June 12 in the Cell Press journal Cell Reports Sustainability, researchers conducted the most comprehensive analysis to date on lithium supply and demand in China, Europe, and the USA. Despite that domestic lithium production in some of these regions could grow as much as 10 times by 2030, it would still fall short of the soaring demand for electric vehicles (EVs) without expanding imports or technological innovation.
"Lithium today is as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution," says author Qifan Xia of East China Normal University in Shanghai. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries. So, we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient."
Together, China, Europe and the USA account for 80% of the world's EV sales, and their demand is expected to increase further. The team estimated that China might need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent—a standard measure of lithium content—to produce new EVs. Europe might require 792,000 metric tons, followed by 692,000 metric tons for the US.
Based on existing and proposed lithium-mining projects from all three regions, the team found that China could produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 metric tons, and in the USA, production could range from 229,000 to 610,000 metric tons in the next 5 years.
The results showed that even when these regions follow the most ambitious development plans to expand domestic lithium mining, none could fully meet their lithium needs through local production alone.
The USA and China could come close to meeting their needs if all proposed mining projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, and the team's computer model showed that these countries would rely heavily on imports.
Currently, many of the lithium imports come from only a handful of suppliers, including Chile and Australia. The team, including co-author André Månberger at Lund University in Sweden, warned that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. For example, if China's imports increase by 77%, imports to the US would drop by 84% and Europe's by 78%.
In addition to ramping up mining efforts, the study points to other means of easing future shortages. For example, adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium—including sodium-ion batteries—could alleviate lithium shortages while supporting climate goals. Countries could also avoid the looming crisis by shifting the focus from producing personal EVs to promoting the use of public transit.
"Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers, and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," Xia says.
