Lithuania is well positioned to make significant progress in the years ahead in delivering on its long-term vision for a secure, sustainable and affordable energy, according to a new Energy Policy Review by the IEA.
The report finds that Lithuania, an IEA Member country since 2022, continues to move with pace and determination towards energy independence after having fully ended its reliance on energy imports from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Together with other Baltic states, Lithuania recently synchronised its electricity grid with the continental European system and disconnected from the Russian-controlled system, another key milestone.
Lithuania's electricity generation from renewable sources nearly doubled between 2022 and 2024, boosted by improved permitting and support schemes. The policy changes also contributed to an increase in home installations of solar PV and in grid-scale battery storage. Even so, Lithuania remains highly reliant on imported fossil fuels in its overall energy consumption, especially for transport, and a significant share of its electricity demand is met by imports. The new IEA report provides the Lithuanian government with timely advice on how it can tackle these concerns and achieve its energy goals, including in two focus areas: expanding the electricity system and decarbonising transport.
"The IEA is proud to support Lithuania's journey towards energy independence, which it has established as a major policy priority. We applaud the important progress made towards this goal so far, including the successful decoupling of Lithuania's energy system from Russia's," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who is launching the report in Vilnius today. "Looking ahead, we see clear opportunities for Lithuania to continue advancing its strong vision for a secure, affordable and modern energy system that drives economic growth. We hope this report and its recommendations can serve as a useful basis to inform the next steps."
"Energy independence is the foundation of Lithuania's energy policy," said Lithuania's Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas. "We have taken bold steps to strengthen our security, from strategic infrastructure investment to full synchronisation with the continental European electricity grid. Now, our focus is on building a cleaner, smarter and more resilient energy system - one that is powered by renewables, electrifies transport, and delivers affordable energy for our citizens. The IEA's review confirms we are on the right track and offers valuable guidance as we implement our long-term strategy."
With its updated National Energy Independence Strategy, Lithuania has outlined its intention to move towards an electrified energy system and support new industrial development based on hydrogen production from renewable electricity by 2050. Under this plan, electrification and hydrogen production would drive electricity demand in the years ahead, and power consumption could increase sixfold by mid-century. The report emphasises that, against this backdrop, ensuring electricity security requires extensive co‑ordination between stakeholders and an accelerated buildout of grid infrastructure.
Given Lithuania's decarbonisation goals, delivering on these objectives and meeting demand would also require swiftly deploying additional renewable capacity - particularly wind power, which has strong potential to grow at a faster rate. However, due to economic uncertainty that has affected the renewables sector globally, the report notes that market conditions should be continuously monitored, and it recommends that policy action be taken if they become less favourable. A rapid but secure expansion of renewables also calls for more flexibility in the electricity system, which could be incentivised through clearer price signals to producers and consumers and a reform of the net-metering system that promotes solar installations.
Another challenge is tackling emissions from Lithuania's expanding transport sector, which today accounts for 40% of the country's total energy consumption and 75% of its oil demand. The Lithuanian car fleet is one of the oldest in the European Union and is the largest source of emissions in the country.
Electrification is the main option for decarbonising road transport and aligns well with the expansion of renewable electricity generation, according to the report. However, relatively high purchase prices mean electric vehicle uptake in Lithuania is currently low. Electrifying transport and maintaining affordability, including by expanding the market for second-hand electric vehicles, is therefore important - and can be delivered through a combination of targeted incentives, infrastructure investments and regulatory support. Shifting more transport activity to public transit and railways would also improve the efficiency of the transport system.
Overall, the IEA Energy Policy Review concludes that if implemented effectively, Lithuania's strategies and plans can guide it towards a more secure and prosperous energy future. To realise this objective, the report calls for Lithuania to continue to prioritise regional cooperation, which is crucial for harmonising policy, sharing effective approaches and strengthening energy supply chains.
The IEA regularly conducts reviews of the energy- and climate-related policies of its Member countries and provides recommendations - a process that supports energy policy development and encourages the exchange of international best practices and experiences.
