Days have been warmer than usual across parts of the east and west. The northern interior had some cooler autumn days due to extended cloud cover and rainfall.
During April and May, several slow-moving high-pressure systems brought unusually warm conditions to the south-east.
Many sites had their highest May temperatures on record. Hobart reached 26.9 degrees on the first of May, its highest ever May temperature with records dating back to 1882.
Autumn nights have been warmer than average across much of the country, except in parts of the north.
Autumn rainfall has been above average for large parts of the country, partly due to tropical activity in March then a north-west cloud band and deep low in May. Late season rainfall is forecast and may improve conditions in some areas where autumn to date has been drier than usual. This includes parts of the west, south and east.
Most agricultural regions in the country's south had an early autumn break in March. Autumn break rainfall is yet to arrive in a few areas including central Victoria.
May rainfall has increased root-zone soil moisture in eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland, but soils have dried in the west. Soil moisture remains above average across much of the north and the interior, including much of South Australia.
Streamflow during May has been below average across the east and south-west, and above average at most sites in the north.
Australia's combined water storages are currently around 65% full. While many storages are at capacity, a large number have dropped below 50%. Storages for the Murray-Darling Basin are currently 48% full, about 9% lower than this time last year.
Looking ahead, winter rainfall is likely to be below average across much of eastern, central and southern Australia. Above average rainfall is forecast in the far north - but it is the dry season, so rainfall totals are not expected to be high.
Winter rainfall in most southern areas is typically about 100 to 400 mm along coastal regions decreasing to 25 to 100 mm inland. So, while rainfall is expected to be below average across large areas this winter, there should still be some rain - just less than usual.
While winter is a time for cooler weather, daytime and night-time temperatures this season are likely to be above average across most of the country. But clear nights over the cool season can still bring the risk of frost.
The winter bushfire outlook shows increased fire risk for parts of central and northern New South Wales following recent dry conditions; and in Western Australia's north, where high wet season rainfall has contributed to increased fuel loads.
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are forecast for much of the Australian region. The tropical Pacific has warmed significantly during autumn, with a transition to El Niño likely in winter. However, a sustained response in both the atmosphere and ocean is needed before El Niño is considered established. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is just one of several influences on Australia's seasonal rainfall and temperature. Our long-range forecasts take into account all the latest signals from the oceans, atmosphere and broader climate system.
In summary, this winter, we're likely to see below average rainfall across much of southern, central and eastern Australia, warmer than average days and nights across the country, a likely transition to El Niño, and an increased fire risk in parts of New South Wales and Western Australia.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. We'll see you next time.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
