After increasing for more than 25 years, lung cancer death rates are finally levelling off among women in European Union (EU) countries apart from Spain, according to predictions of mortality rates from the disease for 2026.
In the UK, death rates from lung cancer have been falling among women for several years, although from a higher peak than those seen in the EU, but they have continued to rise among EU women during this time.
Now, in a new study published in the leading cancer journal Annals of Oncology [1] today (Monday), researchers led by Carlo La Vecchia (MD), Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Milan (Italy), predict that age standardised death rates (ASR) [2] from lung cancer among EU women will stabilise at around 12.5 deaths per 100,000 women in 2026. This represents a fall of just over 5% since 2020-2022 [3]. The only exception is Spain, where female lung cancer death rates will continue to rise by 2.4% in 2026, with around 10 deaths per 100,000 women.
In the UK, lung cancer death rates among women are predicted to fall by 13.4% compared to 2020-2022, with 14.85 deaths per 100,000 women.
However, these improvements will only be seen in women aged 64 years or younger. Lung cancer death rates will continue to rise among older women.
Prof. La Vecchia said: "Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death for both sexes in the EU, with mortality rates continuing to decline among men although they will remain nearly twice as high as the rates seen in women in 2026. In most countries, the previous upward trends in death rates among women appear to be stabilising except in Spain where an increase is expected, albeit from a low baseline.
"The reason for this pattern is that men everywhere started smoking earlier than women. In the US and UK, women started smoking earlier than women in most EU countries, but they also started to stop earlier. Now, smoking prevalence for both sexes is lower in the US and the UK, below 10%, than in the EU. Spanish and French women started smoking later than women in other EU countries, but have also stopped later. The same applies to Italian women, but they never smoked much to start with."
The researchers analysed cancer death rates in the EU 27 Member States [4] as a whole and separately in the UK. They looked at the five most populous EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain [5]) and, individually, for stomach, intestines, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus (including cervix), ovary, prostate, bladder and leukaemias for men and women. They focused specifically on lung cancer for 2026. Prof. La Vecchia and his colleagues collected data on deaths from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases from 1970 to 2022 for most of the EU-27 and the UK. This is the sixteenth consecutive year the researchers have published these predictions, which have proved to be reliable over the years.
The researchers predict that in the EU there will be approximately 1,230,000 deaths from all cancers in 2026, corresponding to an ASR of 114 per 100,000 men (a decline of 7.8% since 2020-2022) and 74.7 per 100,000 women (a decline of 5.9%). In the UK, there will be approximately 172,000 deaths from all cancers, corresponding to an ASR of 98 per 100,000 men (a decline of 11.25%) and 80 per 100,000 women (a decline of 7.25%).
Death rates from most cancers are predicted to fall in most countries, except for female deaths from pancreatic cancer in EU countries (up by 1%) and female deaths from colorectal cancer in the UK (up by 3.7%).
Co-leader of the research, Professor Eva Negri from the University of Bologna (Italy), said: "We estimate that, since a peak in 1988, a total of around 7.3 million deaths from cancer have been avoided in the EU and 1.5 million deaths in the UK, assuming that death rates had remained constant at their 1988 levels. Among men, a total of 1.8 million deaths from lung cancer have been avoided over that time period, but no deaths were averted among women."
Due to the increasing numbers of elderly people in the population, the actual number of deaths from cancer will rise from 666,924 between 2020-2022 to 684,600 in EU men in 2026, and from 534,988 to 544,900 women. However, in the UK the numbers of deaths will remain relatively stable for both men and women: around 91,400 deaths in men in 2026 (up from 91,000) and 80,500 in women (up from 79,980).
Prof. La Vecchia concluded: "Our findings underline the persistent importance of smoking on cancer mortality. Tobacco control remains the cornerstone of lung cancer prevention, and also plays a role in preventing other cancers, such as pancreatic cancer. Policies to limit the use of tobacco have averted millions of smoking-related deaths, but enforcement remains uneven across Europe.
"Overall, cancer death rates remain generally favourable, and pancreatic cancer mortality rates have levelled off, which is encouraging as they had been increasing previously. This probably reflects the improvement in occupational and environmental carcinogens.
"Colorectal cancer mortality is now increasing in the UK and most of northern Europe among people aged younger than 50 years, likely due to overweight, obesity and diabetes.
"Disparities in cancer death rates persist between different countries and genders. In several countries, cancer screening, diagnosis and management can and should be improved to match recent advances. This applies mainly to central and eastern EU countries."
The authors of the Annals of Oncology paper conclude: "Strengthening taxation, implementing advertising bans, creating smoke-free environments, and providing cessation support are essential to closing regional and socioeconomic gaps, and achieving sustained reductions in cancer mortality across Europe. Additionally, controlling overweight and obesity, improving dietary habits, controlling alcohol consumption, and extending and improving the implementation of population screening for the early detection of cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers remain key strategies in cancer prevention."
