The world's methane emissions continue to rise steadily with no signs of slowing, as global trade contributes some 30% to the total amount of the greenhouse gas swirling around the planet, a new study reveals.
As major trade patterns shift, South-South transactions now dominate global supply chains with developing countries increasingly participating in global supply chains. Asia and the developing Pacific region emerge as the largest contributors to global methane emissions, driven by rapid industrialisation and population growth.
Publishing their research today (3 Sep) in Nature Communications, an international team led by researchers at the Universities of Birmingham and Groningen provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of methane emissions across 164 countries and 120 sectors from 1990 to 2023.
With a global warming potential 80 times greater than CO₂ over a 20-year period, methane mitigation offers a critical opportunity to slow climate change in the near term. The researchers discovered that only developed countries have consistently reduced emissions while maintaining economic growth - mainly through improved production efficiency.
Lead author Prof. Yuli Shan, from the University of Birmingham, commented: "Methane has a short atmospheric lifespan, which means reductions today can have an immediate impact. Our findings underscore the need for coordinated global action, especially in developing regions where emissions are rising fastest."
The study highlights fertiliser production as a key sector for action – also calling for targeted sectoral strategies, including advanced leak detection in oil and gas extraction, improved livestock feed formulations, and enhanced waste management practices. It also advocates for smarter consumption choices, such as reducing red meat intake, which has been linked to high methane emissions.
Co-corresponding author Professor Klaus Hubacek, from the University of Groningen, commented: "This study provides a roadmap for policymakers to integrate methane into national climate strategies. It's not just about where emissions occur, but why—and that requires looking at the entire supply chain."
Using the latest global trade and environmental accounts dataset, the researchers found that global trade is responsible for approximately 30% of methane emissions. Shifting trade patterns have led to increased emissions in developing countries, which often lack the technological efficiency of their developed counterparts.
While economic growth and changing consumption patterns have fuelled increases, improvements in energy efficiency and cleaner production technologies have helped offset some of the growth. Between 1998 and 2023, global average methane emission coefficients dropped by nearly 67%, reflecting significant technological progress.
Methane has contributed about 30% to global warming since pre-industrial times. Unlike CO₂, methane has a shorter atmospheric lifespan, making its reduction a fast-acting climate solution. It also contributes to air pollution, causing around one million premature deaths annually.
