Most expectant mothers have a clear idea of when they will return to work, how maternity leave will be divided, and how their careers will continue. But according to new research from the University of Copenhagen, expectations do not always match reality.
A new study based on a survey of 11,000 Danish women has mapped expectations for work and maternity leave - both the participants' own and their partners' - if they had a child. The responses are linked to detailed registry data showing what actually happened when the women later had children.
'What is special about the study is that we have both expectations and actual outcomes - and can compare them directly,' explains Søren Leth-Petersen, professor at the Department of Economics and CEBI, University of Copenhagen. Together with researchers from Stanford and New York University, he is behind the study.
Nine months after giving birth: A turning point
The study shows that around nine months after giving birth, there is a significant discrepancy between reality and the mothers' original expectations: Women believe that they will be back at work by this point, but many are not.
'Nine months after giving birth is a critical time when maternity leave expires and many expect to return to work. But this does not happen to the extent expected,' says Søren Leth-Petersen.
Although many return later than planned, the data shows that in the longer term, most actually resume work to the extent they had expected.
'This suggests that women do not overestimate their future attachment to the labour market as such, but that they underestimate how long it will take to get there,' explains Søren Leth-Petersen.
In the survey, women are also asked whether they believe their partner will take at least two months of parental leave. Here, too, many are mistaken - both in terms of overestimating and underestimating their partner's commitment.
'Even among women who are pregnant at the time of responding, there is considerable uncertainty about their partner's paternity leave. This suggests that planning is not always coordinated or that plans change along the way,' says Søren Leth-Petersen.
Experience helps - but not enough
One would think that women with one child would be better at predicting the course of events with their second child. However, the study shows that errors in expectations are repeated - even among experienced mothers.
"Experience alone does not seem to correct skewed expectations. This suggests that the very way we form expectations is important," suggests Søren Leth-Petersen.
Overall, the study shows that mothers' expectations of how quickly they will return to work are systematically skewed - and that this can have implications for both financial planning and policy design, he assesses.
'If women overestimate how quickly they will return, it can have consequences for their finances, careers and family life. This is important to understand when we talk about gender equality and labour market policy,' concludes Søren Leth-Petersen.
The study, published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, is titled "Beliefs and Realities of Work and Childcare After Childbirth." It is available here.
